THE CHELTENHAM TRENDS: DAY FOUR

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE (1.30)

■ Seven of the past nine winners started their careers in France (six of them were French-bred).

■ Nine of the past 15 winners were unbeaten.

■ Eight of the past 12 winners contested the Spring Juvenile Hurdle.

■ Fifteen of the past 19 winners returned at single-figure odds

(13 at 13-2 or shorter).

SINCE the introduction of the Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, the Triumph has become more predictable, with less need for luck-in-running resulting in better horses coming to the fore. With Sir Gino a notable absentee, the vote goes to KARGESE, who won the Spring Juvenile last time, a race which has been the best pointer towards the Triumph in recent years.

Willie Mullins holds a strong hand, but two of his three recent winners (in the past four renewals) were fillies and the sex allowance is quite significant when it comes to a high-class juvenile.

ST JAMES’S PLACE CHALLENGE CUP HUNTERS’ CHASE (4.10)

■ Twenty-eight of the past 35 winners started their careers in point-to-points or hunters’ chases.

■ Eleven of the past 14 winners had an official BHA rating of 134+.

■ The past nine winners were aged 10 or 11.

■ Seven of the past 14 winners had finished in the first five the previous year.

LAST year’s first and second re-oppose and, while many will fancy the younger Its On The Line to reverse form — on his first start in the colours of leading owner JP

McManus — it should be remembered that the past nine winners were aged in double-digits.

PREMIER MAGIC caused a 66-1 shock last year, but proved that was no fluke when easily winning over the same course and distance last May. He is two from two in point-to-points this year, winning with ease at short odds in early-February. While he might not be the huge price that he was last year, he still seems to be overlooked in the market, in comparison to the apparently more fashionable Irish-trained runners.

■ Statistics provided by Bettrends, courtesy of the Weatherbys 2024 Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide.

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