How to profit from ‘ bully billionaires’
Mischievous activist investors can give shares a boost
Activist investors are aggressively agitating for change at major British and American corporations. You may see these larger-than-life personalities as ‘bully billionaires’. But you should also be asking whether they are not only making mischief, but also money for other investors.
the key figures in the game are
Us hedge fund managers. Most famous among them is Nelson Peltz, boss of the trian fund, enemy of ‘woke’ and father-in-law to David Beckham’s son, Brooklyn. Peltz recently conceded that he may be a bully billionaire, but sees himself as a ‘constructivist’ not an activist. At present, he is making his presence felt at Unilever, the Dove soap and Marmite group.
He is also seeking board representation at the Walt Disney empire. this acrimonious campaign reaches a showdown on April 3.
the equally combative Paul singer, boss of Elliott investment Management, has snapped up a 5pc slice of scottish Mortgage, the FTSE 100 tech trust where private unlisted companies constitute 30pc of the portfolio.
singer’s other investments encompass the bookshop Waterstones. He also used to own the Ac Milan football team. His bid for electricals retailer currys has just been rebuffed. the drugs company GSK and the Alliance trust number among his past UK targets.
Gerrit smit, manager of the stonehage Fleming Global Best ideas Equity fund claims that activists can be a force for good.
But a study by asset manager Lazard of Us traditional activist campaigns, which examined the years from 2018 to mid- 2023, showed them generating shortterm outperformance of 2pc the first week after the campaign was announced. But long-term outperformance was elusive, with an average 8.6pc price fall over the following 12 months.’
Against the background of such scepticism, Peltz seems to be winning respect. Unilever’s share price is up by 4pc this year, indicating confidence in a Peltz-style glow-up of the business.
As part of the re-shaping of Unilever, the £15bn Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s ice cream division is set to be floated in Amsterdam. Peltz, 81, should be pleased. some claim his distaste of Ben & Jerry’s progressive activism was the reason he took a 1.4pc stake in Unilever.
PELtz takes issue with costs and the woke tone of recent Marvel movies at Disney. He faces opposition from film director George Lucas and other Hollywood heavyweights who support Bob iger, Disney’s chief executive.
Peltz turned his attentions to Disney in early 2023, acquiring shares at about $92. the price is now $118, following the unveiling of a $5.5bn restructuring programme. Analysts at Barclays have set a target price of $135.
As a shareholder, i am unsure whether it will be happily ever after if Peltz joins the board, but i am going to relax into my seat (maybe with some popcorn) and watch the story unfold.
Even more uncertainty surrounds the outcome of singer’s scottish Mortgage excursion. But again, as an investor, i am going to wait and see, hoping that he will make a positive difference – reasonably quickly. the Alliance saga ran for seven years. scottish Mortgage’s share price has recovered to 894p, having peaked at 1515p in October 2021. singer contends that buying back the trust shares would boost the shares – and narrow the discount between the price and the net asset value. But critics fear this would be funded by selling listed holdings, so increasing the size of the unlisted element.
Darius McDermott of Fundcalibre also questions Elliott’s dislike of these holdings. ‘Private companies are inherently less transparent than publicly-traded ones,’ he says. ‘But some of those owned by scottish Mortgage are established businesses like ByteDance, owner of tik tok, or Elon Musk’s space X.’
some may be tempted to take a bet on Disney, scottish Mortgage or Unilever. But those who bought Bt or vodafone when French activists burst onto the scene have been disappointed
Patrick Drahi owns a 24.5pc stake in Bt. Xavier Niel has 2.5pc in vodafone. Bt’s share price is 109.65p, below its level in June 2021 when Drahi started buying. vodafone’s price has also gone into reverse.
i would suggest a different strategy: sit back and enjoy the fun if you have cash in UK stocks.
the arrival of Peltz and singer suggests that UK markets are undervalued and that these activists could spur yet more action.
Read Anne’s thoughts on scottish Mortgage investment trust
at thisismoney.co.uk/investing