There are three ways Iran can strike back at Israel — but will the mullahs dare face the consequences?

ON JANuAry 3, 2020, Iran’s military mastermind Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by missiles fired from an American drone as his convoy left Baghdad airport.

In response, Tehran made bloodcurdling threats of revenge.

Five days later, that retaliatory attack duly came – and it proved a pitiful embarrassment.

Dozens of missiles rained down on two uS airbases in Iraq but, although a gym and canteen were destroyed, no lives were lost.

It was a moment of shame for the mullahs – and one whose pain still stings.

So after Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month, killing 13 people including senior military officers, once again Tehran’s bearded theocrats are thirsting for revenge.

President Joe Biden has warned that ‘a significant attack’ is imminent, while Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declares that his country is prepared ‘offensively and defensively’.

Tuesday was the last day of ramadan: one of the most important dates in the Muslim calendar. Many Iranians generals will be arguing that the time is ripe to strike. So what could they do?

There are three main options. Most apocalyptically, Iran could risk all-out war by targeting locations in Israel itself.

Or it could launch deniable attacks via its proxy forces in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria and western Iraq (Shi’ite militias) or yemen (Houthis). Third, it could carry out a tit-for-tat raid on an Israeli consulate. Each of these has its own risks. An attack on Israel itself would be a seminal moment in modern military history. For one thing, Iran’s sophisticated arsenal of ballistic missiles bears no resemblance to the primitive home- made delivery systems, fashioned from repurposed water pipes, used by Hamas.

Its ‘Kheibar Shekan’ missile alone has a warhead that can be packed with 1,100lb of high explosive. Its range of 900 miles means it could devastate targets deep inside Israeli territory.

While the Israelis’ ‘Iron Dome’ air-defence system has proved effective against Hamas’s periodic onslaughts, it has never faced such formidably fast and manoeuvrable firepower.

But the bigger the action, the bigger the consequences. The mullahs are all too aware that Israel boasts equally powerful weapons itself, and – although it has never admitted it – its own nuclear deterrent.

This means they are more likely to opt for an attack via one of their proxies.

Hezbollah has traded fire with Israel across the latter’s northern border with Lebanon almost daily since Hamas launched its attacks to the south on October 7. These exchanges have intensified in recent weeks.

With a vast stockpile of rockets and missiles at its disposal, Hezbollah can inflict significant damage at considerable cost. Its threat forces Netanyahu to keep large numbers of young Israelis in uniform – and thus out of work – with sharp consequences for the domestic economy.

Endemic conflict will also inevitably play havoc with Israel’s lucrative tourism industry. It was striking how many streets in Jerusalem were deserted this year, even over the Easter holiday, as Christian visitors shunned the Holy Land.

The third retaliation could be simple payback: an attack on one of the Israeli embassies.

They would not be short of targets. Israel has long had consulates in Egypt and Jordan and, following the Abraham Accords in 2020, in Bahrain and the uAE.

The danger is that any such attack could carry the risk of a military response from the host country or the uS – and from there, matters could swiftly spiral out of control.

WHILE events in Gaza have dominated the headlines in recent months, the risk of a wider war between Israel and Iran – one that has the potential to draw in all the Middle East powers – would make the conflict with Hamas look like a sideshow.

President Biden has promised Israel ‘ironclad’ support in the event of Iranian reprisals, and Britain will stand squarely behind its uS ally.

If oil exports are disrupted, with all that means for household energy bills, other Western actors surely will be drawn into the conflict.

The challenge facing our leaders is to avoid an escalation in hostilities which could have devastating consequences for the world.