There IS a way Rishi can leave a legacy that the nation – and posterity – would thank him for. But it ain’t a smoking ban...

RISHI sunak knows the Tories are likely to lose the election. he may reasonably hope that the extent of the trouncing can be lessened. But defeat is probable.

so, being human, he must sometimes think about his legacy in the small hours, perhaps when his tummy is rumbling as a consequence of his weekly fast. What will people say about Rishi when he is long gone?

i think he has hoped that he will be remembered for his smoking ban. The trouble is it’s an ill- conceived piece of legislation, as well as being illiberal and unConservative.

On Tuesday the Bill passed its first hurdle but only with Labour support. Nearly half of the Prime Minister’s own party didn’t back him. he contrived to undermine his already weak position.

Maybe future generations will recall Rishi’s bizarre law in tones of awe, but i doubt it. i fear it will go down in history as divisive, draco-nian — and ultimately ineffectual.

And yet there is one issue, if only Rishi would seize it, that would guarantee his immortality long after other politicians of this era have been forgotten.

he would unite his party, confirm his Tory credentials, and earn the endorsement and admiration of much of the country. Posterity would salute him. it would say that Rishi sunak’s prime ministership may have been short and troubled but he did at least bequeath his country a precious legacy.

Rishi could also be certain, were he to do this thing, that a future Labour government wouldn’t reverse it. how many leaders can say that of any major policy? his monument would never be torn down.

OF COURSE, i’m speaking of defence. if Rishi were to make a commitment to increase defence expenditure in the few months that remain before the election, he would be remembered and celebrated as the prime minister who served, albeit at the eleventh hour, to save his country.

Anyone who knows anything about defence realises that in a world of gathering danger Britain is woefully unprepared. American generals, MPs’ committees, defence experts, retired British top brass — all are agreed that, after years of cheeseparing and cutbacks, the Armed forces are weak and inadequate.

for goodness’ sake, even the Defence secretary, Grant shapps, has said that, in what he ominously describes as ‘ a pre-war world’, the Govern-ment should increase defence spending from its current rate of about 2.25 per cent of GDP to 3 per cent. his predecessor, Ben Wallace, says the same.

Even the foreign secretary, David Cameron, recently declared that Britain needs to increase defence spending to counter the threat posed by Russia. if any man owes the country an apology, it’s Lord Cameron, who as Prime Minis-ter slashed the defence budget by eight per cent in 2010. The Armed forces have never really recovered. if it’s clear to Lord Cameron, it’s clear to everyone — except, it seems, for Rishi sunak and Chancellor Jeremy hunt. Even though as recently as July 2022 the latter said, as a backbench MP, that defence expenditure should rise to 3 per cent of GDP.

On Tuesday i read a piece in the Mail that ruined my morn-ing and has cast a shadow over my week. Next year the RAF will be forced to reduce its already much- diminished complement of 137 Typhoon combat aircraft by 30. They are being withdrawn from operations many years before their natural retirement.

With the Middle East edging closer to a conflagration, and a belligerent Russia seemingly winning its war in Ukraine, the Government is refusing to produce the money to keep them flying. They will be used for spare parts or sold.

how is this possible? is this country being run by pacifist bean counters? Or are they simply half-witted? Probably the latter. Or maybe both. Dear God, can this be happening?

We already have the smallest Army for 200 years — great timing! — while the Navy and Air force have a fraction of the capability they had 40 years ago. so let’s junk another 30 Typhoons.

The buck stops with Rishi, who goes on repeating the mantra that defence spending will be increased to 2.5 per cent of GDP when economic conditions allow. But when will that be? Very possibly too late.

The Government will spend an incredible £1,200 billion this year. Welfare spending, includ-ing pensions, stands at £280 billion, and seems certain to keep climbing over the next few years. The Nhs in Eng-land alone accounted for £182 billion in 2022/23, and it’s a surefire bet that it will continue to outpace inflation.

AND HOW much do we spend on defence? some £48.6 billion in 2022/23. Over the past half century we have spent less and less on defence as a proportion of GDP, and more and more on the Nhs and welfare. That may make sense in times of peace. it could be a death sen-tence if war is approaching, as Grant shapps tells us it is.

i am trying to get inside Rishi’s mind. how can a decent, patriotic, clever man — as he undoubtedly is — hold out so stubbornly against increasing the defence budget while handing out tax cuts, and continuing to watch Nhs and welfare spending rise?

What arguments could he have? i’m trying to be fair. he could say vast sums have been wasted by the Ministry of Defence on botched programmes such as the Ajax light tank. But that’s a reason for reforming the MoD — not depriving the Armed forces of the extra resources we need them to have.

Rishi could say — in fact he does say — that there simply isn’t enough money to spend more on defence at the moment. But that, as the fig-ures show, can’t be true. Very modest economies in welfare would enable a significant increase on defence spending.

is Rishi so reluctant because he doesn’t agree with the over-whelming verdict of experts and ex-generals (existing ones usually keep their mouths shut) that our Armed forces have been hollowed out? he has given no indication that he thinks current defence expenditure is adequate. he would have to be mad or stupid to think so, which he certainly isn’t.

Or is there a deeper reason? is Rishi a man of his times, at home with spread sheets and economic modelling, a soft and peaceable man who loves the luxuries and the good things of life, and cannot truly conceive of the destructive evil that leaders such as Putin represent?

it’s said that the Tories might make a promise to increase defence expenditure to 2.5 per cent or even 3 per cent of GDP in their manifesto. Too late. if Labour wins, as it probably will, it won’t be bound. it would be bound if the Government made a commitment now.

All i can say is that all the chatter about smoking, even the convulsions over Rwanda, are as nothing in comparison to the darkening storm. This is one of those rare turning points in history, and Rishi sunak still has time to show he is equal to it. That should be his legacy.