Cost of lockdown continued: GCSE results are set to fall for six years

PUPILS whose first few years in school were blighted by Covid lockdowns will see their GCSE results take a big hit, a report warns.

Researchers say children now aged ten will suffer the biggest fall in results in decades – with those taking the exams in 2030 getting grades five percentage points lower than this year.

The study claims the worst effects of the pandemic will play out well into the next decade.

They believe the long-term educational prospects of the youngest children were hit more severely than teenagers during lockdowns.

This is because those who were in Year 1 – or age five to six – in 2020 were at the most crucial point in the development of their skills. Progress in early school years and pre-school is vital to success at GCSE exams, experts say.

The University of Exeter report said fewer than 40 per cent of pupils in 2030 will achieve a grade 5 or above in English and maths – the equivalent of a high C under the old grading system.

This is much lower than the 45 per cent of pupils who hit the benchmark in 2022/23.

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at Exeter, said:

‘It was an unexpected finding.

It’s because both their socioemotional and academic development were disrupted at such a young, formative age.

‘The early years are so critical in shaping trajectories in school and beyond. All this came at a time when parents were also struggling.’

He said the study was not able to look at children who were younger than five during 2020, but he expected the impact to be the same. He added: ‘I know from speaking with teachers across the country that there are real concerns that pre-school children at the time of the pandemic are coming into the school system under- developed, whether it is lack of potty training or under- developed language and social skills.’

Professor Elliot Major said the impact on younger pupils could turn out to be the ‘worst legacy’ of the pandemic, with poor GCSEs ‘ scarring’ a generation of children.

The report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, also included work from academics at the University of Strathclyde and the London School of Economics. This analysed how school closures during the pandemic hindered children’s skills at age five, 11 and 14.

A Department for Education spokesman said: ‘We have made almost £5billion available since 2020 for education recovery initiatives, which have supported millions of pupils in need of extra support.

‘We are also supporting disadvantaged pupils through the pupil premium, which is rising to almost £2.9billion in 2024-25.’

‘Scarring a generation’