Biden sneaks ahead
US president narrowly leads Trump in race for White House, says poll
JOE Biden is on course to narrowly win the American presidential election, according to a shock poll.
The US President is marginally ahead of Donald Trump in both the electoral college and the popular vote – but the campaign is ‘on a knife edge’, the survey found.
The polling suggests Mr Biden will win 287 electoral college votes to his predecessor’s 251 when the country votes later this year.
The survey by Stack Data Strategy, shared with the Mail, shows that Mr Biden is on track to win – despite Mr Trump being the bookies’ favourite.
It uses an MRP (multi-level regression and post- stratification) model which has been a more reliable predictor of election results in recent years.
Mr Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and has won enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination. Mr Trump will become the Republican candidate when the nominations are made official.
The presidential vote on November 5 will see the two men compete for electoral college votes, which are assigned to each state based on its population. They need 270 votes to win.
The election is likely to come down to a series of key battleground states. The
‘There is everything to play for’
polling shows that, although Mr Biden is ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, this is by less than half a point. If Mr Trump were to flip Pennsylvania alone, he would win the election.
Mr Trump’s path to victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 ran through the Midwest, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the key states.
Mr Biden flipped many of these states in 2020 and narrowly picked up Arizona and Georgia. As it stands, only Georgia is set to be flipped back by Mr Trump.
Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy, said: ‘The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge.
‘According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on course to cling on in the White House. But this is only by the narrowest of margins: only a percentage point in some states.
‘The Midwest states that took Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it is effectively a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds – there is everything to play for and every vote will count.
‘The race for Congress is just as tight with the Republicans currently set to regain the Senate and retain control of the House. This is going to be a truly nail-biting contest.’
A poll by Stack Data Strategy last November forecast Mr Trump winning the electoral college despite Mr Biden winning the popular vote. Mr Biden is now narrowly ahead in both.
The data shows that since
then Mr Biden is making consistent gains across multiple demographic groups, especially older, white, rural, suburban and lower-educated groups.
He is continuing to struggle with 18 to 24-year- olds, currently winning only 53 per cent of their age group despite winning 65 per cent of this group in 2020, based on exit polls.
Mr Biden is also not making progress with Democratic base groups such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians, the research indicates.
Immigration, inflation and crime are the top three issues for voters, with 44 per cent citing immigration and border security as one of the most important areas for them. Infla
tion and rising fuel prices were close behind at 42 per cent. Crime and public safety at 30 per cent came slightly ahead of abortion at 29 per cent.
The survey also asked respondents who they would like to see as vice-president for both candidates, with Trump voters indicating Ron DeSantis, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Biden voters opted for Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama and Mrs Clinton.
This study also shows that the Republicans are on course to win both the Senate and the House by narrow margins.
Stack Data Strategy interviewed 7,793 US registered voters online between March 27 and April 10.