Daily Mirror (Northern Ireland)
Even if regime survives, it is hard to see how May can
WHAT NEXT?
What does confidence vote mean?
MPS will be asked to say whether they have confidence in the Government – effectively decide whether or not to collapse Theresa May’s administration.
The wording of tonight’s motion is simple: “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.” It is the device used to try and oust a sitting Government and Prime Minister.
If MPS back the motion, the Government loses. If they reject it, the PM survives. There is no limit to the number of times an Opposition leader can call such a vote.
When is the vote?
Today’s debate begins shortly after Theresa May’s weekly high-noon clash with Jeremy Corbyn at Prime Minister’s Questions. After about six hours, MPS will be asked to process through the division lobbies to say whether they have confidence in the Government.
Voting will begin at 7pm with the result due 15 minutes later.
Could there be a general election?
The chance moved closer last night but still remains unlikely.
Firstly, the Government would need to lose tonight’s vote, then Tory MPS would need to vote to trigger another general election – the third in four years. Despite regular poll leads over Labour, with so much uncertainty they would probably not risk a move which could see them ousted.
However, if the PM wins but is unable to strike a deal with other parliamentarians for a pact that can pass through the Commons, she may feel she has no other option.
What happens in a no-confidence vote?
MPS debate the pros and cons of the Government and the PM’S leadership. Labour has proposed that the House has no confidence in the Government. There will be about six hours of debate followed by a straight vote.
A simple majority of one is all that is needed for victory.
What happens to Brexit if she wins?
Mrs May has vowed to sit down with “senior parliamentarians from across the House” to thrash out proposals which could get through the Commons.
If talks spark ideas that are “genuinely negotiable and have sufficient support”, she will
“explore them” with Brussels.
If she wins, Mrs May will return to Parliament on Monday setting out what she intends to do next. She has until January 21 to outline a Plan B and could scramble to Brussels to seek more concessions.
What happens if she loses?
Realistically, she would have to announce her resignation. There are 14 days during which a party, including the Tories under a new leader, can try to form a new Government. Mrs May would remains PM during this time.
That could see backroom dealmaking among a host of opposition parties desperate to force her out.
As it stands, the Tories are by far the biggest single party at Westminster and the only party that could govern alone. Mr Corbyn would need support from a host of other parties to win No10.
Will there be a new Tory leader?
It would impossible for the PM to stay on if she loses tonight.
She has already vowed not to fight the next scheduled general election in 2022, making her a lame duck leader and triggering a shadow race for the top job.
That would intensify if she loses tonight’s vote – and a leadership contest would be inevitable.
Potential candidates are already jockeying for position. They include former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and former Foreign
Secretary Boris Johnson, both of whom have refused to rule themselves out of the running this week.