Doctors hit out at lockdown science

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A GROUP of doctors said Covid restrictions are being formulated on modelling that has “repeatedly been proven to be incorrect”.

In a letter to Health Minister Robin Swann, MLAS and MPS, they say ‘worse case scenarios’ are being extrapolated from flawed analysis but “continue to direct policy”.

It says differentiation between people who died as direct result of Covid-19 and those who had the virus when they died but it was not necessarily the cause of death needs to be established before statistics can be used to drive decisions.

They also fired a broadside at NI BMA chief Dr Tom Black over his call for further restrictions, saying his comments are “not representative of all medical doctors in Northern Ireland”.

The letter, a copy of which has been obtained by the Mirror, is signed by Dr Simon Wals, Dr Mark Spence, Dr Andrew Mcneice MB BCH BAO and Dr Alastair Gray MB BCH BAO.

It says they say they are “widely published medical scientists whose clinical practice is deeply rooted in evidence based medicine”.

The letter then cites two examples from the recently published Covid-19 ‘Evidence Bank’ that showed R reduction estimates of 0.05 for hairdressers and 0.1-0.2 for pubs and restaurants.

It adds: “At such low levels, these estimates may well be within the margins of error, Furthermore, their impact cannot be proven among a broad number of varying mitigation measures.

“No attempt has been made to assess if they are effective in one region where they are introduced versus another comparable area where they are not.

“No allowance is made for the implementation of mitigating measures within the hospitality or service industries, despite the huge expense to businesses to implement them.

“To deprive our population of livelihood, civil liberties and education, we believe that the evidence to support this should be scientifically robust and beyond reproach. That is clearly not the case.

“We believe that the widely publicised calls in the local media to keep the hospitality industry closed are not founded on evidence based medicine and that a measured and mature debate on their implementation is required. Similarly, a proper scientific evaluation of ‘lockdown’ policy is required.

“We wish to express our concerns at statements made by a senior member of the local branch of the BMA aggressively recommending intensified lockdown. These are not representative of all medical doctors in Northern Ireland.

“Patients with positive tests have occupied 15% of our NHS bed pool. Our local NHS remains busy, with high occupancy in wards and ICU, both of which are normal in autumn and winter. It is not overwhelmed.”