Daily Mirror (Northern Ireland)
Covid may become easier to catch, but might be less nasty
COMMUNITY CORNER
It’s in the nature of viruses to mutate, some more than others. And it doesn’t matter where in the world they happen to be. We’ve already had our first mutation of Covid-19, the so-called UK (or Kent) variant.
Now it’s been followed by the South African variant – three of them.
Ours is marked by an ease of transmission between 50% and 70% more transmissible than previous variants.
But it’s hardly a Uk-only variant – it’s been found in 45 countries. And now a new variant has emerged in Brazil.
All viruses are constantly evolving and changing.
The plain fact is the more people in whom the virus multiplies, the greater the chance of mutation.
Viruses reproduce by making long chains of proteins, then chop them into new viruses.
The more often the virus has the chance to duplicate itself as it infects more people, the more likely it is a mutation will emerge and escape.
Lucky for us, almost all of these accidental mutations are of little consequence. Thanks to genetic-sequencing technology, we can watch this evolution in real time. “What we’re observing is very expected,” Paul Turner, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Yale, told Dr James Hamblin, MD, lecturer at Yale School of Public Health. “If a population can improve in its environment, evolution lets that happen. The virus population size is expanding, and mutations spontaneously occur.” Viruses mutate at different speeds. The flu virus changes so quickly it girdles the earth each year with a new mutation, requiring a new vaccine.
Measles, on the other hand, mutates slowly, so one vaccination can last for years. “Coronaviruses typically don’t mutate very quickly,” Turner has said.
“I don’t see any evidence this coronavirus is going to suddenly become like influenza. But right now there are so many people infected, and the virus is in a new environment [humans instead of bats], so I’m not surprised evolution is pushing it to improve.”
In the long run, Turner believes the spread of this coronavirus will more closely resemble measles than flu. And viruses can become more transmissible but on the other hand less nasty.
This could happen to Covid-19 which could evolve to cause a milder illness to resemble the other four endemic coronaviruses.
The common cold is very infectious, yet rarely serious.
From the point of view of the virus this makes sense.
It doesn’t pay to kill off your host. Oliver Pybus, a professor of evolution and infectious diseases at the University of Oxford, emphasises that very few places are looking out for new variants sequencing genomes as fast as the UK is.
I see no evidence that this virus will suddenly become like influenza
Happy Fartieth, Joce! My beautiful yet sometimes quite windy sister-in-law Joce is 40 today.
Tall, blonde and beautiful, she’s also usually annoyingly right, handy with a Hoover and a very gifted musician and teacher.
I think it’s fair to say she prefers cats to most people, and boyfriends have to be vetted by her mogs, Gink and Wilbur, before being allowed over the threshold. And even then, they have to pretend to be fascinated by murder mysteries, rousing wartime sing-a-longs and a diet high in chocolate bars.
It must be like dating a cross between Agatha Christie, Dame Vera Lynn and Brigitte Nielsen.
My favourite memory of Joce, apart from the effects of cruciferous vegetables on her bowels after Christmas lunch, was the time she did a cartwheel across a pub car park after a birthday party. Locals still talk of the legend when a vision of loveliness flashed her knickers, snogged everyone and then disappeared into the night, leaving broken hearts and a sizeable bar bill.
The other time was when she won Classic FM SEN Music Teacher of the Year and we all trotted up to the Royal Albert Hall to see her honoured for giving a voice, often quite literally, to children with life-limiting conditions at her school, Treloar College in Hampshire.
Using ground-breaking technology, unflagging determination and a steely smile, Joce has pushed her wheelchair-bound children, most of whom have severe physical impairments, to sing, perform and pass music exams – something that was previously barred to them.
It takes a special sort of person to break down barriers for their students, and also invest so much of herself in them, knowing that for the most, it will be sadly short-lived.
Losing so many over the years has taken its toll, and even today Joce is attending online the funeral of one of her proudest successes – a young woman who lived long enough to fulfil her dream and become a composer.
To be honest, Joce is probably relieved we can’t all be there to celebrate with her this weekend and mess up her lovely cottage – but we’ll be giving her the bumps over Zoom. All 40 of them!
Email me at siobhan.mcnally@mirror.co.uk or write to Community Corner, PO Box 791, Winchester SO23 3RP.
SHELL yesterday declared it had passed its peak for oil production – as it laid out plans to go green.
The energy giant said it reached its high of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2019, but insisted that output would now fall by between 1% and 2% a year.
The announcement came as the firm outlined plans to become net-zero in carbon emissions by 2050. But it was blasted by environmental campaigners for not going far enough and “taking the planet down with it”.
The company will keep selling polluting products such as jet fuel and diesel, but it aims to offset the impact through strategies such as carbon capture and planting more trees.
And it says it still aims to churn out more liquefied natural gas while investing more in greener technologies such as electric car charging points and biofuels.
Last week Shell announced a £16billion annual loss caused by a slump in oil demand due to the coronavirus crisis. Chief executive Ben van Beurden said: “We want to be a leading power player, and the focus will be very much on selling clean power.”
But Mel Evans, head of Greenpeace UK’S oil campaign, said: “Shell brazenly says it will dodge oil production cuts and will simply let output dwindle.
“Its big plan is to self-destruct and take the planet down with it.”
Russ Mould, investment director at City firm AJ Bell, said: “Some people will be surprised it isn’t being more aggressive with its move towards renewable energy.”
GREGG WALLACE: BIG WEEKENDS AWAY Channel 5, 9pm GREGG is on TV so much at the moment that even Bradley Walsh might need to watch his back.
In this fun show, the Masterchef judge tours European cities, immersing himself in their culture for a packed three-day visit.
It’s a bit like Travel Man, but more mainstream, with the deadpan humour of Richard Ayoade replaced with Gregg’s enthusiastic “Woah!” yelled every few seconds.
Starting the series in Barcelona, Gregg begins where you might expect – trying out some jamon.
There is culture, of course, and he visits Gaudi’s Sagrada Familia cathedral, takes a wander down Las Ramblas, tries painting in the style of Picasso and takes a whizz around the city in a sidecar.
And there is an uncomfortable moment when he watches people clamber up each other to create human towers at a street festival. “You are the bravest people in Europe and maybe the craziest,” he says, anxiety-ridden after one tower collapses.
How to get over it? Tapas, of course.