Daily Mirror (Northern Ireland)
POLL FINDS WE’RE STILL DIVIDED ON THE BORDER
» Six-point lead for staying in UK » ..but most expect unity in 25yrs
A NEW poll has suggested people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK if a referendum was called now – but it’s a close call.
Of those surveyed, 49% said they would support staying in the UK while 43% would back a united Ireland. The remainder were undecided.
The Lucid Talk poll, which had a sample size of 2,845 and a 2.5% margin of error, was conducted for BBC NI’S Spotlight on April 5, 6 and 7.
It also commissioned similar research in the Republic as part of a special programme reflecting on the centenary of Northern Ireland’s foundation.
In the Republic, 51% said they would opt for a united Ireland while 27% would vote against it.
That poll was conducted by Lucid Talk/ireland Thinks between April 6 and 9. The sample size was 1,008 with a 2.5% margin of error. The study also asked people for their views on the contentious
Northern Ireland Protocol that governs post-brexit trading arrangements with the rest of the UK.
Opinion here was sharply divided with 48% wanting it scrapped and 46% thinking it should be retained.
In the Republic, 74% said the Protocol should be retained with just 10% calling for it to be axed.
People in Northern Ireland were also asked whether their MLAS should vote for the region to remain in the Single Market when they decide on the Protocol’s future in three years.
A total of 56% said Northern Ireland should remain in the Single Market while 38% answered it should not. In terms of Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the longer term, the survey asked people if they thought the region would still be within the UK in 10 years and in 25 years.
On the 10-year timeframe, 55% of people here felt it would still be in the UK with 32% believing a united Ireland would be achieved by then.
In the Republic, 59% felt Northern Ireland would still be in the UK in 10 years, with 26% predicting Irish unity would have been achieved by then.
The results were significantly different for 25 years. In Northern Ireland, 37% felt the region would still be part of the UK at that stage, with 51% believing it would not. In the Republic, 26% felt Northern Ireland would still be part of the UK in 25 years, with 54% saying it would not.
The poll, which was taken during a period when disorder was flaring in certain areas, asked people if they thought violence could return.
In Northern Ireland, 76% said yes. In the Republic, 87% feared a potential return to conflict.
The survey also asked people if they thought the centenary should be celebrated – 40% agreed and 45% disagreed.
In the Republic, 12% said it should be celebrated and 50% felt it should not.
In Northern Ireland, 48% believed partition was a negative development which should be regretted with 41% disagreeing. In the Republic, 71% described it as a negative development with 7% thinking the opposite.