Venice is worth a 14-1 punt
OVER the past 15 years no race on the Flat has been as punter friendly as this afternoon’s Derby (4.30 Epsom).
Ruler Of The World (7-1) returned the biggest-winning SP during that time in 2013 but we could be looking at an unusual result today.
The trends tell us we need a horse who has:
Raced no more than five times. Run in the past 35 days. Already won in Listed class at least.
Finished first or second last time out.
Never run in a handicap, on the all-weather or unraced as a juvenile.
Using that wealth of detail, we have reduced the 19 runners to only the Aidan O’Brien pair of Cliffs Of Moher and Venice Beach.
Cliffs Of Moher stands out as the likely favourite. However, although he’s by Galileo, Cliffs Of Moher’s mother was a sprinter — albeit related to horses who stayed well. That means there may be some stamina doubts to overcome while VENICE BEACH doesn’t have such worries.
He’s also by Galileo but is a half-brother to King George and Arc winner Danedream — their mother being out of a mare who won a French St Leger.
He isn’t flashy but — in a race where guts and stamina are all-important — he ticks a lot of boxes. Have 2pts ew at 14-1 with bet365 to four places at a quarter the odds.