DOUBLE HANDFUL

John Shaw’s racing betting column in association with PADDYPOWER

IAM confused as to why some betting firms have made Defoe favourite over

FRONTIERSMAN to win today’s Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury. Maybe the bookies are going by the old Harry Truman motto, “If you can’t convince them, confuse them.”

Maybe it’s because Defoe will win — there’s no doubting his credentials.

Defoe has won his last three races, he’s won over 11 furlongs and he even bagged a credible 15 Premier League goals last season! But I just can’t see Defoe finishing in front of Frontiersman, and I feel that’s the best tip I’ve given since pointing out the best way to win the Tour de France is to wear a yellow jersey.

The one nagging doubt for backers of Defoe is the fear that trainer Roger Varian appears to have popped him in this race as an afterthought. You get the feeling Defoe’s real target is a tilt at next month’s St Leger and this run is a merely to give the three-year-old some valuable experience over a longer trip.

Frontiersman’s second behind Highland Reel in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom is unquestionably the most impressive form of the race. Charlie Appleby’s four-year-old is in great shape at home and should relish the step down in class. He’s won over a mile and a half, he’s taken a maiden here at Newbury and he’s finished no worse than second in his last three starts. In short, he’s going to be very tough to beat. The only question mark hanging over Frontiersman is his ability to snatch second place when poised to swoop. But losing to Highland Reel and an in-form Hawksbill is hardly a disgrace, and he did rally well enough in the closing stages of the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes to suggest the step up in distance won’t be a problem.

Agent Murphy won this race two years ago and may be a danger, but he hasn’t had a run in two years. Another factor to consider is that 11 of the last 15 winners had starting prices of 4-1 or lower.