LOUGH’S GOT THE KEY AT 50s
SINCE the Aintree fences were changed following the 2012 renewal, the entire make-up of the great race (5.15) has changed.
There are plenty of reasons for that, but the shortening of the distance by a furlong has played a major role.
However, today offers a completely new ball game.
We can eliminate all but a chosen few on account of the ground and we only really have two worthwhile stats to consider anyway, namely:
Follow a horse making its Grand National debut.
Trust in horses with proven stamina who love the mud.
With those facts in mind the only contenders we are interested in today are Anibale Fly, Carlingford Lough, Tiger Roll, Chase The Spud, I Just Know, Baie Des Iles and Milansbar. Given his recent form,
Chase The Spud is unlikely to be one of the few in contention at the business end.
Milansbar looked a different horse when Bryony Frost adopted front-running tactics at Warwick — her only ride on the 11-year-old.
He hasn’t looked the same since and that run may have been a one-off. Tiger Roll isn’t the best of jumpers. He is a likely stayer, although that talent will be tested on this ground, so at a bestpriced 14-1 he’s short enough to avoid.
We are now down to four which, in reverse order of preference, begins with Baie Des Ile.
At seven, she’s young to be a leading contender but has had plenty of racing to counter her age.
Ground and trip are likely to be ideal but we have missed the price so our first bet will be I JUST KNOW.
He likes to front-run, is a National winner — the North Yorkshire version — and has been a sound jumper. Have 2pts win at 25-1 in a place.
No.2 is J P McManus’ Gold Cup third ANIBALE
FLY, who won a big-field chase over Christmas.
Have 2pts win on him at 14-1 at best, but our main bet is another McManusowned horse, 12-year-old CARLINGFORD LOUGH, who is a five-time winner at the highest level.
He has a history of popping up when least expected, so have 2pts ew at a best-priced 50-1.