Davis in blast at Lords ‘gift’ to EU bosses
Customs Union war leaves the PM’s back to the wall
PEERS risk undermining the UK’s Brexit negotiations by trying to change the Govenrment’s flagship legislation, Brexit Secretary David Davis said.
The House of Lords has passed 10 amendments to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, including a vote for MPs on any final deal.
Mr Davis said the Bill was in the “national interest” and some of the peers’ proposals would be a “gift to the other side”.
Theresa May’s customs union partnership plan to for avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic was shot down by Brexiteers.
The process of negotiating Brexit was always going to be fraught. People voted to leave, but nobody voted for how we should leave.
For months we have debated whether we should have a soft Brexit, a hard Brexit, a red, white and blue Brexit or no Brexit at all.
Now we are facing another outcome – a shotgun Brexit.
Theresa May has never been fully in control of events as she has navigated our way to the exit door.
She has had to pay heed to Brexiteers and Remainers in her party, Cabinet colleagues with an eye on her job, the demands of Brussels, the will of Parliament, the stance of the opposition parties, the shrill voices of the DUP, the concerns of business and the unions and the court of public opinion.
She has had to balance what was good for her party – and her ability to stay in power – with what was best for the country.
Some have compared delivering Brexit to carrying a Ming vase across a jagged mountain range while wearing high heels and being bombarded with snowballs.
Through a combination of guile, luck and doggedness, Mrs May initially traversed this terrain without smashing her cargo.
Despite the harrumphing from hard-line Tory leavers, she negotiated the divorce bill, a transition period and an outline agreement on citizens’ rights.
Now she’s hit a brick wall in the form of the customs union.
The dilemma facing the PM is how to forge a new customs relationship with the EU and meet Brussels’ insistence on no return to a hard border in Ireland.
The obvious solution is for the UK to stay in the customs union.
It allows firms in the EU to trade freely, without border checks in all 28 member states, with Brussels setting tariffs on imports from non-EU states.
If we stay there will be no hard border in Ireland and minimal disruption to firms, especially manufacturers who import/export components across the Channel.
But Mrs May and the Brexiteers insist we leave the arrangement.
They argue that it would see the UK accept rules from Brussels with no say at the table, and it would stop us striking more competitive trade deals with non-EU countries.
To try to square the circle the Prime Minister has proposed a “customs partnership” which would see the UK collect tariffs on behalf of the EU.
It was described as “bonkers” by Michael Gove and “cretinous” by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who believe it would keep the UK in the customs union in all but name.
The proposal was rejected at a meeting of the Brexit war cabinet.
The Brexiteers’ preferred solution is maximum facilitation or “max fac”, which would use a tracking system to monitor goods across borders. This still requires infrastructure at the Irish border and relies on untested technology.
Regardless of the merits of the two options, neither would be ready until 2021, a year after our membership of the customs union ends, and both have been declared unworkable by Brussels.
In Brussels’ eyes, the Cabinet row is the equivalent of entering a vegetarian restaurant only to argue whether to have a burger or a steak pie. Neither are on offer.
Mrs May is now in a serious bind. The EU wants an answer to the Irish border question before the end of June or it is threatening to delay further trade talks.
The PM used to say that no deal was better than a bad deal. She
rarely utters these words any more. The Government has made no preparations for walking away. It would require hundreds of extra border staff, replacement arrangements for our membership of EU agencies governing everything from aviation safety to medicines, and falling back on World Trade Organisation rules.
And even if we had prepared for this eventuality, Mrs May knows it would be so economically ruinous the Tories may never be forgiven by furious voters who had been told to expect a Brexit dividend.
Brussels knows it is a threat we would only carry out in the most desperate of circumstances.
One option is for the PM to face down the Brexiteers and go for a form of customs partnership.
This would risk not just Cabinet resignations but leave her vulnerable to a leadership challenge.
The 60 Tory MPs in the European Research Group led by ReesMogg have made veiled threats that they would start collecting names demanding her resignation if Mrs May went down that path.
Another option is to bow to the EU’s demands and leave Northern Ireland in the customs union.
But this is a red-line issue for the DUP, who would withdraw their support from the Tories, leaving Mrs May without a majority.
Then there is Parliament. It is thought there are enough proEuropean Tory MPs to win a vote to stay in a customs union.
Mrs May faces being bounced into a Brexit she does not want and which could split her party.
There is no obvious course that does not lead to trouble. Either she alienates the Brexiteers or she enrages the pro-Europeans.
One misstep could spell the end of her time in No10.
As the PM contemplates her dire situation, she may reflect on why she triggered Article 50 with only the sketchiest plan of the Brexit she decided to pursue.
And she may regret the decision to call a snap general election which sapped her authority.
Like Dickens’ character Wilkins Micawber, who bumbled along hoping something would turn up, Mrs May has kicked the Brexit can down the road, burying divisions and hiding from hard choices in the vain hope it would get sorted.
As the deadlines approach, she has to confront her worst demon: she has to make a decision. On it rests the future of her premiership, her party and the country.
One option is to face down the Brexiteers but that leaves her vulnerable to a leadership challenge