ELDERLY CARE TIMEBOMB
Numbers needing help will double to 1.2 million... as costs soar to £18billion a year
BRITAIN faces a social care crisis as the number of elderly needing help is to hit 1.2 million, experts warn.
And the bill will soar to £18.7billion by 2040. But Tory cuts could shatter the system.
One critic said: “It is already close to collapse.”
WITH stretched councils starved of cash by the Tories and the elderly living longer, the social care system in Britain is careering towards collapse, experts have warned.
The number of pensioners who will be looked after is to rise from 657,000 in 2015 to 1.2 million by 2040 and the bill by 159%, from £7.2billion to £18.7billion.
But with Theresa May refusing to end crippling austerity, councils are facing a £3.5billion funding gap by 2025.
Critics warn the social care system would be impossible to sustain unless the Government drops its war on the poor, leading to more suffering.
The worrying figures are revealed in a new report. It comes as the Mirror today launches a Fair Care For All campaign demanding urgent action to ensure our elderly and vulnerable are afforded proper care rather than abandoned. Shadow Minister for Social Care Barbara Keeley said: “The vast scale of the challenge facing the social care system is being met with a total lack of leadership from this irresponsible Tory government. England’s hollowed out social care system is already close to collapse.
“Councils who provide care are facing bankruptcy, nearly half a million fewer people are getting publicly funded care than in 2010 and over one million older people are going without any care at all.”
The analysis commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care looked at rates of disabled elderly and gauged numbers accessing social care if the system remained unchanged, based on population projections.
And the rise in the official figures of over-64s eligible for help ignores a bigger but largely unknown number who currently go without or struggle by with help from relatives or neighbours.
The Tories have made no pledges of long-term funding anywhere near the £18.7billion needed. The report’s lead author Raphael Wittenberg, of the London School of Economics, said: “Our projections of demand for social care show unless there is a substantial decline in disability rates in old age the number of people needing care will rise greatly over the next 25 years.
“There’s a huge question whether society can provide this unpaid care.” Toby Watt, senior analyst at think-tank
the Health Foundation, added: “The lack of focus on social care was perhaps understandable when the NHS was founded in 1948 when life expectancy for men was just 66.
“But with the number of older people who will require help in the future set to continue to grow the current system is unsustainable. The Government simply cannot afford to continue to duck the issue of social care reform.” The predic- tions include social care costs among those who pay thousands from their life savings and others who qualify for council-funded help for the elderly.
Under the population projections there will be 7.6 million in need of care.
Some of those will get publicly funded care and others will pay. The biggest rise would be those pensioners receiving NHS care in their homes – up from 249,000 to 466,000. This includes help with everything from washing to going to the toilet and making meals. But a much bigger percentage will get help from relatives or friends. Privately funded care would rise from 101,000 to 167,000. The bill would to soar from £6.3billion to £16.5billion. Those living in residential care homes would rise from 307,000 to 542,000. The research was carried out by the London School of Economics and York and Kent universities.
Tory cuts have already hit social care aid. NHS figures showed those receiving help has fallen by 400,000 since 2010.
Local Government Association wellbeing chairman Ian Hudspeth said: “Adult social care services face a £3.5billion funding gap by 2025 just to maintain existing standards of care.
“The likely consequences are more and more people being unable to get quality and reliable care and support.”
The Department of Health and Social Care said: “We recognise the pressure on social care.
“We have provided local authorities with access to £9.4billion in dedicated social care funding over three years.”