Another defeat & May is facing no man’s land
THE Leave campaign won the 2016 referendum under the slogan Take Back Control. Last night we handed even more control to Brussels.
MPs voted to delay Brexit beyond the scheduled departure date of March 29. But an extension is not Britain’s call. It is in the gift of the EU and requires the unanimous approval of all 27 member states.
Theresa May is expecting the EU will agree to delay of a few weeks if her deal is passed at the third attempt next week.
If the Prime Minister is defeated again, then a longer extension of up to two years will be needed.
This could see the UK cast into no man’s land. We would take part in the European elections but our MEPs may not have any say on any legislation passed in Brussels.
DREAD
The PM wants to avoid the UK having to take part in European elections in May, a scenario which fills the Tories with dread because it could become a launchpad for Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party.
The assumption is that the EU will grant an extension in order to prevent themselves being blamed for a no-deal Brexit.
However, this should not be taken for granted.
They will want a credible reason to grant the UK extra time. This could be Mrs May’s deal passing, a clear majority in Parliament for an alternative deal, a general election or a second referendum.
We also have to remember that any of the 27 EU leaders could use this moment to extract further demands from Britain.
Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez is in the middle of an election campaign and playing hardball on Gibraltar could be to his advantage.
There are reports that Brexiteers, who want a hard Brexit, have been leaning on allies in Poland and Italy urging them to block an extension.
Patience in Brussels is wearing thin. The EU is better prepared for a no-deal than the UK – they could decide not to grant an extension.
In that circumstance, Mrs May, if she loses a third time, would have to decide between crashing out without a deal or cancelling Brexit.