Deal is dead but not buried.. and no-deal still possible

What happens next

Is Theresa May’s deal completely dead?

Not yet. The Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement has now been defeated three times.

Although the margin of yesterday’s vote was smaller than the two previous results, it shows there is unlikely ever to be a majority for her plan as it stands. Mrs May hinted yesterday she could try a fourth time next week – but she could be barred by the Speaker.

What happens next?

Nobody knows for certain. Mrs May failed to spell out the way forward in her statement.

The next stage is on Monday, when MPs will vote to see if there is a majority for the other Brexit options. Based on the indicative votes on Wednesday, the Commons could end up backing being in a customs union. But the PM opposes this plan, which could split the Tories, and may refuse to carry out the instruction of MPs.

Will there be a general election?

The PM hinted strongly that an election may be the only way out when she said we were “reaching the limits” of the Commons process.

Jeremy Corbyn and the SNP leader Ian Blackford also called for an election. If the Commons fails to reach an agreement on an alternative Brexit plan, the PM will be left with the choice of leaving under no-deal or asking for a long extension – which would require us to take part in the European elections.

Or she could request an extension in order to hold a general election. Any extension is in the gift of Brussels and requires the unanimous approval of all 27 bloc leaders.

Do the Tories want a general election?

Not really. It is a huge risk. The Tories face a backlash from Leavers for failing to deliver Brexit on time and from Remainers for pushing ahead with it. Even under a new leader, they will struggle to agree a message on Europe that unites the party. It is also possible an election would result in another hung Parliament. Could we crash out without a deal?

It is a possibility. The default position is if we cannot get an extension, we leave on April 12 without a deal. Mrs May noted yesterday there was no majority for no-deal but, as it stands, there is no mechanism for MPs to vote down a no-deal. The decision could be taken out of our hands when EU leaders meet on April 10. Some are pressing to deny an extension and force us to decide between no-deal or cancelling Brexit.