DOUBLE HANDFUL

John Shaw’s racing betting column in association with

MORE often than not the term ‘cavalry charge’ is used to describe a race like the Lincoln, the traditional curtain-raiser for the Flat season.

In military terminology, a cavalry charge was a method of battle that enabled soldiers advancing toward the enemy at speed to engage in battle in close combat.

In racing parlance it simply means we haven’t a clue who is going to win.

A dense 22-runner field over Doncaster’s straight mile affords chances to plenty, which is why I’m not overly keen on today’s short-priced favourite Auxerre.

The Charlie Appleby-trained and Godolphin-owned four-year-old is highly fancied on the back of three consecutive wins, after finishing a length second at Newmarket last June on debut.

Auxerre ticks pretty much every trend box there is, and I find that even more off-putting.

Four-year-olds have the best record in the race, he runs off a good weight and the draw looks favourable — although this depends more on the pace of the horses around you than any actual bias.

The only concern with contests like this is that there’s a lot that can go wrong. Usually by the time I’ve figured out where the horse I’ve backed is located in the field, at least nine other horses have flashed past the post before him. The one statistic favourite backers should fear the most is that 10 of the last 16 market leaders have been unplaced. Even if Auxerre is head and shoulders better than every other horse in this field, he will still need luck in running and at 4-1 you can forget about each-way insurance. That’s why I’m looking elsewhere in search of a bigger price and a smaller stake.

One (of several) I like the look of is David Barron’s KYNREN, who is used to running in big fields.

He was in contention to win on at least four occasions last year, touched off by Poets Voice at the York Ebor Festival and a close third in the John Smith’s Cup at York. He’ll be carrying my money today.