Questions
Q AInvestigations continue, but we know 19 flying objects targeted two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, drones and cruise missiles
The Houthis – a militia operating in northern Yemen and at war against Saudi Arabia since 2015 – have claimed responsibility. But we know the Houthis are supported by the Iranians.
It is thought the drones came from Yemen, and the missiles from southern Iraq. American sources are claiming they’ve identified locations in Iran itself where the weapons were launched, but there’s no solid evidence of this.
Q AThe Iranians have their back against the wall because of harsh sanctions driven by the Trump administration in the US.
The Iranians signed a nuclear deal with President Obama in 2015 and made what they saw as major concessions so that they could trade with the world.
But then Trump came in and withdrew. Now Iran cannot export the oil and gas products needed to keep them afloat. The consequences are massive economic, food and medical crisis.
Q AIran has been disrupting the oil and gas trade in the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime choke point between Iran and the Arabian Gulf.
They have targeted ships with mines, and seized tankers It’s a game of tit for tat. We’ve already seen this with the taking of dual nationality and international prisoners, like British-Iranian mum Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
Q AThe Abqaiq oil processing plant is the biggest oil facility in the world, in the biggest oil producing country in the world.
The effects have been primarily economic, 5% of global oil production was taken off the market in a day, despite the Americans releasing reserves.
Oil prices have taken a massive hit. On Monday, the cost of a barrel of oil rose by 20%, although the Saudis say production will be back to normal within weeks.
But the problem is more strategic in the long term. This must not happen again, just like the seizing of tankers. Yet we haven’t done anything in the West to give the Iranians reason not to strike.
Q AAs well as oil prices it’s about trade. The tanker war. Britain’s strategy moving forwards is about global Britain. We need to have access to these trade routes and have freedom of navigation. Apart from that Saudi Arabia is one of the most important Mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is in jail
Q AWe usually respond with sanctions, but we have maxed out the sanctions to a point where we have no way to respond short of war, or a military operation.
However, I don’t think military escalation is on the books.
The Iranians don’t want traditional warfare – the problem is, they know we don’t either. President Trump initially said he was “locked and loaded”, but then he kind of took a step back.
He made a promise to his electorate – his key constituency – he would not go into another war in the Middle East. And he wants to be re-elected. And Saudi are unwilling to take military action without America’s backing.
When the Iranians shot down a US unmanned military drone in June they responded with a cyber attack against air defence systems.
Q AThe Europeans must sit down with the Iranians and discuss how to move forwards. Oman and Qatar are working as go-betweens between Washington and Tehran. Both want a diplomatic way out, but neither can be seen as weak.
A key event is the UN General Assembly in New York next week. Trump and the Iranians will be there. Maybe there could be a surprise direct sit down.