Beware strong alarm tactics
This week, pro-Remain group Best for Britain launched its tactical voting website. And the results were… interesting.
If you’re in Kensington, where the pro-Remain Labour MP Emma Dent Coad has a majority of just 20 over the Conservative candidate, Best for Britain recommends you vote Liberal Democrat, despite the Lib Dems securing only 12% of the vote in 2017. A swing to the Lib Dems from Labour’s vote would guarantee Kensington turning Hard Brexit Tory in 2019.
In Putney, where in 2017 Labour was 1,500 short of winning the seat from the Tories, Best for Britain also reckons the smart thing to do is… vote Liberal Democrat. In Castle Point, where the Lib Dems secured just 2.3% of the vote in 2017, coming fourth behind the Tories, Labour and UKIP, Best for Britain also recommends giving your vote to Jo Swinson.
What’s going on here? Best for Britain, so far, aren’t saying much beyond that their model is based on a method which adjusts national polls for a small geographic area’s demographics. According to polling expert Dr Luke Blaxhill, the recommendations just aren’t backed up by constituency data.
BIASED
But to give you a picture of the kind of biased data the Lib Dems commission, a poll they got Survation to carry out in North-East Somerset where the Lib Dems came third behind Jacob ReesMogg and the Labour candidate in 2017 framed the question as “Imagine the result in your constituency was expected to be very close between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate, and none of the other parties were competitive...”
And guess what? Survey says the Lib Dems still only came second.
This data is dangerously bad. And I would go as far to say that it is fundamentally dishonest.
It’s kind of ironic that both the Lib Dems and Best for Britain argue that the 2016 referendum was won by lies. If the Remain vote splits the way Best for Britain would like it to, the 2019 election will be lost for the same reason.
If you’re voting tactically this December, trust no poll. Use your brain.