Managing Covid is the way ahead FOR RESTRICTIONS
TESTING TIMES Scientist examines blood sample
THE Barrington Declaration is based on a false premise – that governments and the scientific community wish extensive lockdowns to continue until a vaccine is available.
Lockdowns are only ever used when transmission is high.
Now we have some knowledge about how best to handle new outbreaks, most national and subnational interventions are much “lighter” than the full suppressions we have seen – for example, in the UK, across the spring of 2020.
Those behind the Barrington Declaration are advocates of herd immunity within a population.
They state that “those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal” – the idea being that, somehow, the vulnerable of society will be protected from ensuing transmission of a dangerous virus.
It is a very bad idea.
We saw that, even with intensive lockdowns in place, there was a huge excess death toll – with the elderly bearing the brunt of that.
Some 20%-30% of the UK population would be classed as vulnerable to a severe Covid-19 infection.
Around 8% of the UK population has some level of immunity to this novel coronavirus, and that immunity will likely wane over time and be insufficient to prevent a second infection.
A strategy for herd immunity would also promote further inequalities across society, for example across the black, Asian and minority ethnic communities.
The declaration also ignores the emerging burdens of “long Covid”.
We know that many people, even younger populations who suffered from an initially mild illness, are suffering from longer-term consequences of a Covid-19 infection.
The independent SAGE group are among the many scientists who have eloquently pointed out the many reasons why these initiatives are ultimately harmful, and are misleading as to the scientific evidence base.
There are countries managing the pandemic relatively well, including South Korea and New Zealand – their strategies do not include simply letting the virus run wild while hoping that the asthmatic community and the elderly can hide somewhere for 12 months.
They have a proactive approach to “test and trace” to reduce the impact of new outbreaks, and good public health messaging from the government to their populations.