‘Outbreak is still growing rapidly’

WORRYING data yesterday confirmed the Covid outbreak is growing fast, with tens of thousands of new cases a day.

The Government’s SAGE panel of experts said the R value for the UK stands between 1.3 and 1.5.

Last week the reproduction rate was between 1.2 and 1.5.

Prof Graham Medley, infectious disease modelling expert at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Some areas are going to be back to the same kind of position they were at the end of March.

“We are struggling to understand how we’re balancing that imperative of having to prevent healthcare being overwhelmed and how to mitigate against damage caused by the intervention.” The Office for National Statistics estimates there were 27,900 new cases every day between October 2 and 8.

This is up 62% from its estimate of 17,200 a day from September 25 to October 1.

Evidence from Cambridge University experts suggests that daily new infections could be far higher in England, at 47,000.

The Independent SAGE group, which mirrors the official body, demanded a “circuit breaker” to avoid “tens of thousands of new cases and thousands of hospital stays”.

It wants schools and non-essential businesses closed for two to three weeks.

Prof Christina Pagel of University College London said: “Agreeing with SAGE, we believe a sharp national circuit breaker, followed by three to four weeks of continuing restrictions, is needed to stop the current wave in its tracks.”