Howe and Smith, good men, good coaches, but both will struggle to save their clubs
EDDIE HOWE is about to find out that keeping 52,000 Newcastle fans happy is a very different kettle of fish from life at Bournemouth.
And I am not convinced he will be able to save them from relegation.
Howe misses his first game at St James’ Park after testing positive for Covid yesterday.
The team has just five points from 11 games on the board. The odds for clubs to stay up after such a poor start are rarely favourable.
Yes, Newcastle are the richest club in the world now, and they can afford to buy anyone they want in January. But by the time the New Year transfer window opens, another nine games will have elapsed and we will be into the second half of the season.
Of course, there is still plenty of time for Howe to collect the 33 or maybe 35 additional points needed to stay up. And if he chalks up two or three wins early in his reign, momentum should be enough to lift Newcastle into mid-table.
I enjoyed watching Howe’s Bournemouth teams, but in their five seasons in the top flight under him, the Cherries conceded 67, 67, 61, 70 and 65 goals. For all their attacking flair, they were not famous for keeping the back door locked – and Newcastle have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
And for all the good players he brought to the south coast – including Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser and Matt Ritchie, who are reunited with him on Tyneside now – Howe’s record in the transfer market was not faultless.
Yes, he sold Nathan Ake, Aaron Ramsdale and Wilson for a combined £78million, terrific income for a club with such a small stadium. But his most expensive buys – Jefferson Lerma, Dominic Solanke, Jordon Ibe, Philip Billing and Ake for about £95m combined – were not exactly Premier League hits.
At a club like Bournemouth, when you spend big it has to be good business. And even at Newcastle, he will have to spend wisely.
Howe was under only limited pressure at the Vitality Stadium because nobody expected them to make it to the Premier League in the first place, let alone stay there for five years. But expectations at Newcastle are miles bigger.
They have the resources to strengthen their squad significantly in January, and Howe will be under massive scrutiny when he starts spending the Saudi owners’ fortune.
Good luck, Eddie. If you start well, the Geordies will take you to their hearts. But five points from 11 games is such a poor basis for salvation that I still fear Newcastle might be going down.
DEAN SMITH was unlucky to lose his job at Aston Villa – it wasn’t his fault that Jack Grealish, his best player, was sold for £100million.
And although I was pleased that he landed another Premier League job within seven days, I can’t see him saving Norwich from an instant return to the Championship.
When Grealish exercised the £100m clause in his contract and left for Manchester City, I thought Villa reinvested the money well.
Danny Ings, Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey and Ashley Young looked good signings on paper, and maybe the Villa hierarchy expected them to be pushing for a place in Europe.
Smith probably expected to get more out of his newlook team without Grealish.
But he still left Villa in a much healthier state than he found it, just as he was revered for his work at Walsall and Brentford earlier, and he is a good fit for Norwich.
The Canaries’ model of investing heavily in their academy and bargain budget signings has turned the likes of James Maddison, Ben Godfrey, Jamal Lewis and Buendia into big-money Premier League players.
But Norwich were the 11th-biggest spenders in Europe this year, so they have had a go in the market – and yet they are still bottom of the pile.
Smith is a good guy, a good coach with a fantastic work ethic, but at both ends of the pitch they are not good enough to survive.