Bivol will be brave... and be beaten

IN strict boxing terms Saul Alvarez versus Dmitry Bivol is a contest worthy of Canelo’s annual Cinco de Mayo showpiece in Las Vegas

It is important to point out, however, that I don’t agree with this fight. I think all Russian fighters, and Russian athletes in other sports, should be banned until the invasion stops.

The opponents who have given Canelo trouble have been slick and fast. His only defeat was inflicted by Floyd Mayweather Jnr while Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout were others to throw him off kilter.

Bivol, who is putting his WBA lightheavyweight belt on the line in the early hours of tomorrow morning, is of that ilk. The only difference is he fights more like an amateur, relying on his feet rather than upper-body movement to get out of range.

That will be a problem against Canelo, who cuts down the ring as well as any I have seen. His footwork is so good.

Orthodox moves don’t work against him. He steps across as opponents retreat, walking them on to a right hand or a left hook.

And Canelo doesn’t miss. It might take four or five rounds to get his range but he will get to Bivol eventually. It took him 11 rounds to nail Bivol’s compatriot Sergey Kovalev (above). Bivol is better defensively than Kovalev so theoretically he will be harder to reach. He is also younger with fewer miles on the clock. But he does not carry Kovalev’s KO power.

To survive, Bivol (with Canelo, top) has to keep the fight in the centre of the ring as long as he can. That way, in an emergency, he has at least four steps before his back hits the ropes. But he does not want to meet Canelo there. He must fight on his terms and stop Canelo shutting off the ring.

That means controlling distance with the jab. When he sees Canelo advance he has to take a step back and then throw quickly to keep Canelo off, then step back into the centre. If Bivol does not land cleanly he must at least catch Canelo with something. The best way to achieve that is to aim for the chest. That way he will hit some of the target and force a reset.

Ultimately we are talking damage limitation. A Canelo points win is the more likely but don’t be surprised to see Bivol dispatched in the championship rounds.