INDYREF IS A SIDESHOW TO ULSTER FAULTLINE
THE VIEW FROM BELFAST
UNDER a slab of granite in St Anne’s Cathedral, Belfast, lie the remains of perhaps Ireland’s greatest unionist, Sir Edward Carson.
Carson – the so-called uncrowned King of Ireland’s Protestants – was a central figure in the creation of Northern Ireland in 1921.
It is his unyielding statue, its hand defiantly raised, which famously stands in front of the parliament building at Stormont.
If you put your ear to the floor of the cathedral’s south aisle, though, you may hear the sound of him spinning in his grave.
Last week’s elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly were without a doubt the most important since the partition of the island 96 years ago.
For the first time in decades, political observers are now seriously talking about the real possibility of a united Ireland.
Growing confidence within the nationalist community, Tory indifference to the North and Brexit are creating a perfect storm and forcing reunification back on to the agenda.
Last week’s election was genuinely historic. The poll was triggered by the “cash for ash” scandal – a farcical £500million renewable heat initiative which meant the more wood pellets businesses burned, the more cash they made. There are stories of empty farm sheds kept at tropical temperatures.
Sinn Féin, in government with the Democratic Unionist Party, demanded DUP leader and First Minister Arlene Foster step down pending an investigation into this fiasco. She refused, triggering an election.
The collapse of the executive was also a symptom of a growing frustration within the republican community at what they saw as disrespect by the DUP towards issues such as the Irish language and same sex marriage.
The result of the election has been seismic. Sinn Féin emerged with their best result ever and 27 seats, one short of the DUP’s 28. The Ulster Unionist Party won 10, the nationalist SDLP 12, and the cross-community Alliance eight.
The stunned unionists have lost their overall majority for the first time ever and politics has been thrown into chaos.
Under the terms of the Good Friday agreement, the parties now have to get together and form an executive within the next two weeks or so.
If they fail to do so, there will have to be yet another election – or direct rule from Westminster.
With recriminations flying, no one is putting money on a deal being done.
That would mean Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire taking charge and having to deal with the fallout.
Unionism has never been more dejected. The DUP are looking dated, reactionary, tired, arrogant and on the wrong side of history. Sinn Féin and their dynamic, young new leader in Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill, have a spring in their step.
It’s not surprising nationalism has found a new confidence. Intransigence by Foster and her colleagues, who had a dreadful election campaign, makes their old republican enemies look accommodating and reasonable.
Republicans have plenty of reason to be cheerful – Sinn Féin just missed becoming the largest party last week by a wafer-thin 1168 votes. And the Catholic/ Nationalist population is steadily growing, which surely makes reunification only a matter of time.
On top of all this, there is another critical factor – Brexit.
Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. It is the only place in the UK which has a physical border with another country, the Republic of Ireland, crossed by 23,000 people a day to work or study. That’s the equivalent to the population of Renfrew or Arbroath.
At present, there are no border checks. Traffic passes as easily and freely as it does between Gretna and Carlisle. But when the UK leaves Europe, this could change.
There are real fears of Customs and perhaps immigration controls, which everyone agrees would cause massive economic damage and make Northern Ireland even more isolated.
There is no doubt Theresa May’s intransigence over Brexit drove voters towards pro-Remain parties such as Sinn Féin, the SDLP and Alliance.
If direct rule is re-imposed, Westminster Tories will be negotiating a deal on Northern Ireland’s behalf. No one seriously expects May’s Brexiteers to look after the North’s interests.
Incredibly, it will be Dublin, not London, which will then be pleading its case in Brussels.
It’s not hard to see where this is going. A united Ireland prospering within the EU makes more sense than an economically fragile and isolated North out of it.
None of this will happen tomorrow, but at the polls last week we may well have heard the first rumblings of an earthquake.
Sir Edward Carson can no longer easily rest in peace.
As has happened so often throughout history, England’s difficulty could well turn out to be Ireland’s – and particularly the North’s – opportunity.
At the polls last week, we may have heard the first rumblings of an earthquake