Economic challenges laid bare
SOME people have dismissed the GERS figures as they rely, in part, on estimating some Scottish tax revenues.
This is unfair. All economic figures are subject to a degree of estimation, including GDP and unemployment statistics. So estimation is not unusual.
And changing the estimation techniques does not alter GERS’ headline conclusions.
GERS takes the current constitutional set-up as given.
If the purpose of independence is to make different choices about the type of economy and society we live in, a set of accounts based on the current set-up and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.
But GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2016-17.
In doing so, it sets a useful starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating further constitutional change.
All countries face big fiscal challenges to replace declining revenues in the face of rising spending pressures.
Changing the constitutional set-up doesn’t alter the fact that these fiscal challenges need to be addressed by all governments in all countries.
But a more autonomous Scotland will be forced to meet such challenges sooner rather than later.