Decade to make indy pay
Growth Commission report says Scotland can make independence work – but it will take 10 years of pain before the good times arrive SNP unveil plan for Scotland’s future
SCOTLAND would take a decade to get public finances on a sure footing after a Yes vote, according to a sobering new blueprint for independence.
But the country could then match the living standards of the world’s most successful small nations within a quarter of a century, it adds.
The SNP-funded report on quitting the UK suggests years of upheaval to secure the “prize” of long-term economic growth.
Over 350 pages, the Sustainable Growth Commission call for Scotland to keep using the pound while preparing the ground for a new currency.
It makes the bold claim that Scotland would technically start with “zero” debt obligations, but proposes a £5billion annual “solidarity” repayment to the UK Treasury.
The commission, led by ex-SNP MSP Andrew Wilson, says a new Scottish currency could be introduced once six tough targets are met.
Scotland’s deficit would have to be slashed from about eight per cent of GDP now to just three per cent.
A new central bank would have to be set up to earn credibility on the global stage.
North Sea oil revenue would be channelled away from day-to-day spending and put in a growth fund, as happens in Norway.
The commission estimate a £450million price tag to set up all the new departments and agencies over five years.
Unionist parties warned the new blueprint would strip cash from public services such as schools and the NHS, adding austerity to Brexit chaos.
But First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: BY ANDY PHILIP AND DAVID CLEGG “What this report shows is that Scotland is a wealthy nation with huge resources.
“But despite those enormous strengths, similar-sized nations have performed better over decades – all of them independent but most of them with fewer resources than us.
“The task ahead is to match those other nations, creating more jobs and raising living standards, providing a better future for everyone who lives here.”
It would take two years from a Yes vote to independence, the report suggests.
It could then take five to 10 years to “put public finances on a sustainable footing”.
The report argues the “prize” would be a shift from damaging UK policies and Brexit, while improving economic performance and living standards for the long-term.
The commission call for Scotland to follow the example of small nations such as Denmark and New Zealand.
Matching their growth rates would add £4100 per person in economic output after as long as 25 years.
The report says: “The prize in achieving this will be a transformation in living standards across the country. That it is a long-term strategy should not diminish it one bit. We have to begin the process now and the contribution this makes to future generations will be remarkable.”
The commission aimed to move the debate on from 2014 when the Yes campaign lost in a 45-55 vote. It has been billed as a more realistic take on what Scots should expect.
Former first minister Alex Salmond’s “white paper” for independence was seen by opponents as too reliant on projected oil revenue that was too optimistic.
And he was bogged down by currency confusion. Salmond refused to offer a “plan B” to
his preferred
currency union with the remains of the UK after it was rejected by then-chancellor George Osborne. The new blueprint, which will be debated by the SNP before any policies are adopted, reveals plan B is to use sterling without a formal union. The proposal would have the Bank of England setting interest rates for years after a Yes vote. Wilson, publishing his report yesterday, said independence won’t be a “quick and easy step to success”. He added: “Hope must conquer fear, of course, but that hope needs to be grounded in clear-sighted reality and a rigorous plan.
“And in putting this together in this report, we have drawn on the best expertise we could find.”
Unionist parties slammed the report.
Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said: “This was branded the growth commission, but it’s really a cuts commission.
“Proposals to cut Scotland’s deficit by almost two thirds over a decade would result in a level of austerity that not even George Osborne attempted.
“The people of Scotland cannot afford another wasted decade of deficit reduction.”
Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson said: “People have had enough of Nicola Sturgeon grand-standing on independence.
“They want all politicians to focus on the here and now – improving school standards, ensuring fair funding for our NHS and building a Scottish economy that works for us all.”