Sturgeon legacy hinges on fulfilling SNP’s indy dream

THERE isn’t much upsetting Nicola Sturgeon as she prepares to address the party faithful in Aberdeen today.

A memory blank on independence set-up costs was an uncharacteristic slip for the normally sure-footed First Minister. But in the scheme of things, the Channel 4 blunder will just be a blip on the road.

Two other key developments yesterday are much more important for the long-term future of the SNP.

Keith Brown, Sturgeon’s choice for deputy leader, has made it comfortably to port with hardly a ripple of discontent among the membership.

And the mood of delegates showed the party’s growth commission have achieved their task, completing a complex mid-air refuelling of the independence project.

Before she takes the stage, Sturgeon will reflect that the party’s poll ratings are remarkable, given that the SNP have been in office for more than a decade now. Yet...

On the most important issue of all for the SNP, the dial has not shifted – support for independence, while still strong, is not in the majority. For Sturgeon and other strategic Nationalists, the 50 per cent plus one vote isn’t going to be good enough.

The evidence of post-referendum Scotland and now-divided Brexit Britain shows you can’t build a nation on disputed foundations.

The indy project is reliant on whatever emerges from the mists of Brexit. The continent might be cut off by the Brexit fog and a hard British crash out of the EU might boost the independence cause.

But hoping for calamity isn’t a political strategy and Sturgeon can’t afford the luxury of time.

The latest polls show her personal rating is beginning to slip. She has been First Minister for nearly four years, is regarded with reverence and respect by friends and political opponents but, as yet, has little concrete to add to her political biography.

Her domestic achievements – minimum pricing of alcohol being the most significant – are limited.

John Swinney’s underwhelming speech yesterday underlined that the quest to revitalise Scottish education is stalling.

Despite expending the best part of her political career trying to achieve independence, Sturgeon may reflect that she has squandered the opportunity to do anything else.

In Aberdeen, the SNP leader will have command of all she sees. The applause for her speech will echo down the Mearns, across the Tay and Forth and to the banks of the Clyde.

Her writ, and for now, her popularity can bridge Scotland but perhaps her weakness is that she hasn’t shown the ability to unite Scotland. She has all the political power she requires, all that potential, and, she knows, little time to dispense it wisely.

Getting to her position has been an astonishing achievement, Sturgeon now needs some astonishing achievements to prove it. NATS WANT IMMIGRATION POWERS – PAGES 8&9