All EU withdrawal options will cost UK billions..but some are unthinkable
THE Brexit negotiations have arrived at the point Sir Alex Ferguson famously called “squeaky bum time”. With the clock running down and the UK Government in chaos, what are Theresa May’s options if Brexit is to go ahead?
NO DEAL
THE doomsday scenario is looking more likely by the day, with May struggling to maintain any control over her divided party.
It could ultimately be triggered by the Northern Ireland border issue.
An amendment to the Customs Bill forced on the Government by Brexiteers on Monday effectively ended the EU’s “Backstop” customs plan which would have seen Northern Ireland remain in the customs union if a final agreement cannot be reached.
If the stand-off is not sorted by the end of the year, the UK could crash out of the EU with no deal on March 29, 2019. That would mean chaos at all borders, with customs checks and regulatory controls applied.
One expert has estimated this would cost the UK economy £81billion a year by 2033.
HARD BREXIT
IF THE EU reject May’s compromise proposals or the right-wing Brexiteers get their way, Britain could be heading for a hard Brexit.
EU negotiator Michel Barnier has previously warned the UK seemed to be heading for a Canadian-style trade deal because the EU countries will not allow British “cherrypicking”. This would mean no membership of the single market and the need for a new customs arrangement – causing major headaches for business. The Portes analysis says these would be slightly less damaging than no deal, but still cost £57billion a year by 2033.
CHEQUERS BLUEPRINT
IT SEEMS about as likely as Scotland winning the 2022 World Cup but May is still holding out hope that her Chequers plan will become reality.
There are a lot of hurdles to clear – not least the vocal hard Brexiteers in the Conservative party.
Even if the Tory rebellion is quelled, it is not at all certain that the plan will be acceptable to the EU.
It would also require the British public to accept some level of continued freedom of movement for EU citizens and oversight by the European Court of Justice.
And after all that, the outcome is quite clearly worse than the status quo.
The Portes analysis was carried out before the Chequers blueprint was published, but you can be sure it would cost the economy billions.
SOFT BREXIT
THE favoured option of many Remainers, especially in the Labour Party, this would effectively see the UK remain as close to the EU as possible.
The EEA is an internal market between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein established to allow non-EU states to participate in the single market.
It crucially excludes agriculture and fishing – sectors widely seen to be pro-Leave – and would allow Britain to strike separate trade deals with the rest of the world.
But to leave the EU and then join the EEA would be seen as a terrible defeat for Theresa May and an international humiliation for Britain.
And even then, Portes estimates it would cost the economy £17billion a year by 2033.