How bad would ‘doomsday’ Brexit be?

WOULD a no-deal exit be as bad as some say? Here’s the likely outcome.

Economy: A catastrophic impact on jobs, business and livelihoods is predicted. The Government’s own analysis shows growth would slump by 8.5 per cent in the next 15 years, with real disposable income down 9.6 per cent and business investment down 10.2 per cent. The Treasury says tax revenues would fall by £45billion in the next 15 years, so less cash for schools and hospitals.

Trade and business: The UK would be forced to fall back on World Trading Organisation rules. That would mean tariffs on our exports.

The CBI estimate that WTO terms would add £4.5billion to £6billion a year to the cost of exports. Airbus said it would “reconsider its investments in the UK” while John Neill, of Unipart, said it could result in “bus loads of jobs” vanishing.

Travel: You may need a visa to travel to the EU and UK airlines would cease to have a valid operating licence to fly in the EU.

Border controls: There could be considerable delays with new customs checks at ports.

EU nationals: Three million EU nationals in the UK and a million UK nationals in the EU would be left in legal limbo, with doubts over rights.

Health risks: UK nationals travelling abroad would no longer be covered for free medical care.

Food prices: Households could be £1000 a year worse off with imports subject to WTO tariffs, said Oliver Wyman consultants. Food prices would rise by 20 per cent, say importers.