Numbers too close to call on support for split
BY SIR JOHN CURTICE
TODAY’S polling from Best for Britain opens up another flank in their energetic campaign to persuade us Brexit should be stopped.
“The union is at risk from Brexit,” they cry. Trouble is, the poll suggests Scotland’s place in the UK is not particularly secure in the first place. At 47 per cent, supporters of the union just outnumber the 45 per cent who back independence.
Given the uncertainty of all polling, these numbers imply we cannot be sure whether Scotland would vote Yes or No in IndyRef2.
Stopping Brexit hardly makes any difference. In those hypothetical circumstances, support for the union remains at 47 per cent, while support for independence eases just slightly to 43 per cent – still far too close for unionist comfort and not enough to suggest stopping Brexit would clearly save the union. These initial Professor of politics at Strathclyde University numbers mean that only a little shift was needed to produce a headline grabbing pro-independence majority in the event of Brexit going ahead. And a small shift is all that occurred, with 47 per cent now backing independence and 43 per cent the union – a result leaving the result of any future independence referendum uncertain.
At two points, the unionist lead in this poll is well below the nine-point average lead recorded by other polls this year. If this poll is overestimating support for independence, then the small swing it suggests Brexit might bring might not tip the balance anyway. “Scotland might – or might not – vote to leave the UK irrespective of Brexit,” would be a more accurate headline. But that would not suit Best for Britain’s purposes.