BREXIT BREAKS BRITAIN
Survey suggests May’s plans could persuade Scots and Irish voters to break up the Union
SCOTS would vote for independence after Britain leaves the European Union, according to a bombshell poll showing how Brexit could spell the end of the UK.
The poll, commissioned by a pro-Remain campaign group, shows 47 per cent of Scots would vote to go it alone when Britain leaves the European Union while just 43 per cent would vote for Scotland to remain in the UK, with 10 per cent unsure.
This is a stunning reverse of voting intention if the UK remains in the EU, with 47 per cent of people telling pollsters they would vote against independence in that case and 43 per cent voting to go it alone.
The Brexit factor appears to have even more dramatic political consequences in Northern Ireland, with 52 per cent of voters saying they would back a united Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
Only 39 per cent would vote to remain as part of UK under those circumstances.
If Britain stayed within the EU, only 35 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland would support a united Ireland, according to the Best for Britain poll which campaigners are using to demonstrate the constitutional chaos Brexit could unleash on the UK.
Taking away any reference to Brexit, the independence question in Scotland remains on a knife-edge according to the poll of 1022 people conducted by Deltapoll.
Asked how they would vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow, 47 per cent would be for remaining in the UK and 45 per cent for leaving, with eight per cent undecided.
Nearly half of Scottish voters, some 48 per cent, believe the public mood has shifted since the Brexit referendum and that it would be would be wrong to leave the EU based on the 2016 result.
Some 31 per cent think it would be the right thing to leave anyway, and 21 per cent of voters don’t know.
In the Brexit referendum, Scotland voted 62 per cent to 38 per cent to Remain. The overall result across the UK was 52 per cent for Leave and 48 per cent for Remain.
In Northern Ireland, which voted 56 per cent to 44 per cent to Remain in the referendum the political impact of Brexit seems even more pronounced.
In the Northern Irish poll, 52 per cent of voters, would vote for a united Ireland outside of the UK if Britain leaves the EU.
The shock poll also showed that 56 per cent of voters would back a united Ireland if Britain left the European Union and a hard border existed.
Some 40 per cent would keep the Union and only four per cent didn’t know.
Eloise Todd, the Best for Britain chief, said the polling evidence should be enough to make people stop and think again. She added: “When people voted in 2016, they didn’t vote to break up the union and risk both Scotland and Northern Ireland voting for a different future outside the UK.
“This is compelling evidence as to why we need to stop and think again.
“The public deserve a say on the final deal, with the knowledge that if Brexit happens we could shatter the union altogether.”
But polling guru Sir John Curtice sounded a note of caution.
The Strathclyde University politics professor said the poll showed the union did not look particularly secure irrespective of
what happened with Brexit. But SNP MP Stephen Gethins predicted Brexit would boost the independence cause. He said: “As the deeply damaging consequences of a ‘no deal’ Brexit become clearer, as Scotland’s economy continues to outperform the UK, and as people grow increasingly concerned about the future under Westminster rule, support for Scotland’s ability to take its own decisions in an independent country will only grow further.” Labour MEP Catherine Stihler insisted the poll revealed “a clear and present danger” to the future of the UK.
She said: “The Tories’ reckless gamble with the EU referendum and Theresa May’s disastrous handling of the negotiations are stretching the historic bonds that unite us.”
Remain-backing Tory MP Dr Phillip Lee said: “No government, especially a Conservative one, can legitimately pursue this course which will likely lead – perhaps not tomorrow or next year or over the next decade but nonetheless inexorably – to breaking our home union.
“The only legitimate course now is to suspend or revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum offering people a choice between the Leave the Brexiteers want and remaining in the EU on a new deal.”
But Colin Clark, Scottish Conservative MP for Gordon, said the focus should be on securing the best deal for all parts of the UK as Britain leaves the EU.
He said: “The people of Scotland voted by a significant margin to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014.
“The body of polling work since then does not suggest any meaningful change in that view.”