WHAT NEXT?
What does the confidence vote mean? MPs will be asked to say whether they have confidence in the Government – effectively deciding whether Theresa May’s administration collapse.
If MPs back the motion, the Government lose. If they reject it, the PM survives. When is the vote? The high-stakes debate begins shortly after May’s weekly lunchtime clash with Jeremy Corbyn at Prime Minister’s Questions.
After about six hours, MPs will be asked to say whether they have confidence in the Government. Voting is due to begin at 7pm, with the result about 15 minutes later. Could there be a general election? Chances of it moved closer last night but it still remains unlikely.
The Government would need to lose tonight’s vote, then Tory MPs would need to vote to trigger another general election. Despite regular poll leads over Labour, with so much uncertainty, they would probably not risk the unpopular move.
However, if the PM wins but is unable to strike a deal with other parliamentarians for a pact which can pass through the Commons, she may feel she has no other option. What happens in a no-confidence vote? MPs spend hours debating the pros and cons of the Government and the PM’s leadership.
Labour propose that the House have no confidence in the Government. A simple majority of one is all that is needed for victory in the vote. What happens to Brexit if the PM wins? May has vowed to sit down with senior parliamentarians and thrash out proposals which could pass through the Commons. If talks generate ideas which are “genuinely negotiable and have sufficient support”, she will “explore them” with Brussels. She has until January 21 to outline a Plan B, giving her time to scramble to Brussels and seek further concessions. And if she loses? Realistically, she would have to resign. There are 14 days during which a party, including the Conservatives under a new leader, can try to form a new Government – during which time May remains PM.
That could see backroom deal-making among opposition parties desperate to force her out. As it stands, the Tories are by far the biggest single party at Westminster and the only party who could govern alone.
Corbyn would need support from other parties to propel him to No10. Will there be a new Tory leader? It would be impossible for the PM to stay on if she loses. She has already vowed not to fight the next scheduled general election in 2022, making her a lame duck leader and triggering a shadow race for the top job.
That would intensify if she loses tonight – and a leadership contest would be inevitable.
Potential candidates are already jockeying for position.