THE VIRUS SPREADS
Political leaders spell out what precautions are being taken as country locks down for worst-case scenario
CORONAVIRUS prevention went into overdrive yesterday as three cases of the infection were confirmed in Scotland – bringing the UK total to 87.
Two new confirmed cases in Ayrshire and Grampian emerged after the first Scottish diagnosis in Tayside on Sunday.
One patient had been in northern Italy recently and the other had contact with a known positive case – but this was not with the Tayside patient.
It came as the UK witnessed its biggest day-on-day increase in coronavirus cases.
Three of the 29 new cases in England were passed on in the UK, raising fears that community transmission is taking hold.
The deadly virus has infected nearly 100,000 people in at least 77 countries.
Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said: “We expect the number of cases to rise and Scotland is well prepared for a significant outbreak of coronavirus. “There is currently no treatment or vaccine so early detection measures will continue to be vital in helping to prevent the spread of the virus.” She added: “People have a vital role to play in helping us contain any outbreak by following the latest health and travel advice, and basic hygiene precautions – such as washing hands frequently, not touching their face and covering their nose and mouth with a tissue when coughing or sneezing.” The Scottish Government has warned that up to 80 per cent of the population could become infected, with potentially four per cent of this group requiring hospital treatment. Freeman said the Government is looking at NHS capacity and what more can be done to “create additional headroom inside the health service”.
Consideration is also being given to increasing capacity in areas such as high-oxygen therapy for patients.
Meetings are taking place with council leaders to ensure patients do not have to stay in hospital longer than is needed.
Freeman added: “We still have too many people not leaving at the point when the hospital has finished delivering clinical care.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tried to reassure the public about the spread of the virus on a visit to an NHS 24 centre in Clydebank.
She said: “People are hearing big numbers that are scary numbers and it is important we continue to put these in context. These are worstcase scenarios. Why do we have worst-case scenarios? So we are properly planning for whatever we might be facing in this.
“But those worst-case scenarios are not a forecast of what will necessarily come to pass.”
NHS 24 has set up a dedicated phone line for people to call for more information, with advice also available online.
On Monday – the day after the first case in Scotland was confirmed – the coronavirus helpline received 538 calls, with a further 430 on Tuesday.
By the end of Tuesday, 264,118 visits had been made to the coronavirus page on the NHS website.
The hike in cases across the UK came as England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, warned a UK epidemic is looking “likely”.
He said: “At this point in time we think it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK.”
The NHS is bracing for a shutdown of services in the first “wave” of a coronavirus outbreak.
And the PM’s official spokesman admitted Britain was on the “border” of going from containment to delaying coronavirus.
Discussions have already taken place with the Parliamentary authorities about plans for governing the country in the event of a widespread outbreak. A senior No10 source said Parliament would “have to” stay open.
The NHS has declared the outbreak a Category 4 incident – the highest state of alert. Under Government plans, all but the most urgent operations will be further delayed.
In extreme circumstances, the NHS could be shut down to all but critical care.
A rise in infections is expected in the next six weeks and once that happens, draconian “social distancing” measures may be introduced. These could include school closures, public gatherings cancelled and even advice to avoid shaking hands and kissing.
Government scientific experts predict the UK’s coronavirus outbreak could last about four to six months. Experts now believe it may become endemic in Britain – meaning it is permanently resident and will have seasonal peaks.
While our immunity to the new virus is still low, about one in 100 who get it are expected to die. The elderly and those with underlying health conditions are most at risk.
Early evidence suggests that for those with a serious condition, the risk rises to one in 50 dying. For those aged over 80, the death rate is thought to be one in 33.
British supermarkets have drawn up “feed the nation” contingency plans that would help the country cope with any panic-buying brought on by a sudden escalation of the coronavirus outbreak. Under the
plans, supermarkets would work with suppliers to scale back the variety of foods and groceries available, and instead focus on maintaining supplies of staple products.
The supermarket contingency plans were detailed by a City analyst, Bruno Monteyne, of investment firm Alliance Bernstein.
Monteyne was previously a supply chain director at Tesco. He said a major outbreak of the virus could result in “panic buying, empty shelves and food riots”.
In a note to investors, he wrote: “Yes, it will be chaotic but the industry will reduce complexity to keep the country fed.”
Monteyne’s note said that Tesco, the UK’s largest supermarket chain, has practised “multiday simulation” exercises – including mocked-up news coverage, with different teams preparing responses to a flu pandemic.
Tesco confirmed it has carried out preparations.
Monteyne added that large grocery firms were likely “to be drawing up lists of which products will be prioritised”.