How long will it last?

WHILE Boris Johnson gave us hope by claiming we could turn the tide of coronavirus in 12 weeks, others warn that control measures could be in place for more than a year.

No one knows just how long Britain will be in the grip of the virus but many are now looking with hope to China – where Covid-19 was first identified in December. While Chinese patients are still dying, there have been no new cases of the disease which was ravaging the nation just weeks ago.

In Wuhan, the epicentre of the global pandemic, authorities have started to loosen restrictions, allowing people in residential compounds deemed virus free to leave their homes in staggered groups at certain times of the day. And in areas that have been without infections for seven consecutive days, residents can go out freely as long as they do not gather in groups.

Experts are waiting to see if China is able to lift its lockdown without suffering a second wave of the disease.

So what might happen here and how long before normal life might return?

SHORT TERM – 3 MONTHS

By summer, we could be in the same position as China is now, with London and most of the rest of country virus-free. The Government may start a phased lifting of restrictions, region by region, over a period of weeks.

MEDIUM TERM – 6 MONTHS

By autumn, there won’t yet be a vaccine but there may be treatment. If we are not rid of coronavirus yet, the outcome of clinical trials may mean fewer people will die and there will be less pressure on the NHS.

LONG TERM – 12-18 MONTHS

If the virus sticks around despite all our efforts, our only hope of containing it will be through “herd immunity” – when a majority of the population has recovered and is immune to the disease – or from vaccination. A vaccine may be ready by next spring.