Shocks likely to be empty threat for the Old Firm

The longer games are played without fans, shock results are more likely

SCOTTISH football is about to become a Rich man’s game.

It’s time to talk, like old country crooner Charlie, about what goes on Behind Closed Doors.

Peter Lawwell is leading the calls for football to be played in front of a live audience as soon as possible.

The Celtic CEO knows the importance of revenue streams running at their maximum.

So this is one thing that may be on his and others’ minds: the longer the game is played without fans, the more likely it is to produce a lottery of results.

By courtesy of their enhanced playing budgets, Celtic and Rangers will continue to lead the way when the Premiership gets under way on August 1.

But the longer games are played in empty stadia, the greater the likelihood of shock results.

A recent study in The Conversation, a news website written by academics and researchers, revealed home teams win 46 per cent of matches on average. But in 191 games played behind closed doors in Europe’s top leagues between the end of World War II and the start of lockdown, that figure fell to 36 per cent.

On average, away teams win 26 per cent of their matches in front of fans, but 34 per cent when stands are empty.

One month into the Bundesliga playing behind closed doors, the stats were more head thumping than the morning after the night before at Oktoberfest.

Prior to shutdown, 43 per cent of games in Germany’s top flight had been won by home teams, 35 per cent by the away club, with 22 per cent of fixtures drawn.

Behind closed doors? There was only a 22 per cent home win rate, 30 per cent were drawn and a staggering 48 per cent away wins.

A 2005 study added to the intrigue and it came from Harvard and MIT, not the conspiracy corners of the Brazen Head and Louden Tavern.

It showed referees award more injury time when the home team is losing, but it was affected by how many fans were present in the stadium.

Sixth minute injurytime winners could now be a thing of the past as the subconscious pressures on our whistlers, particularly at venues such as Parkhead and Ibrox, are removed.

The game has long trumpeted the influence of the 12th man and it is never more evident in the Scottish game, including on the road when the Old Firm support can make up the majority of the crowd.

How many last-minute winners have been scored at Ibrox on the strength of the Copland Road sucking the ball into the net?

How many times have Celtic netted vital winners at venues such as Rugby Park when whole ends of the ground are roaring their favourites to succeed?

The dynamic may change these next few months when the big two don’t have large hands on their back pushing them forward to victory.

Maybe it’s less Charlie Rich and more Billy Ray Cyrus – they should watch out these next months or risk an Achy Breaky Heart next May.