YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO SELL FREDO
Stats that show hitman will score for fun this season
JONATAN JOHANSSON used stats to help sell Rangers on a move for Alfredo Morelos.
The Finn fears the numbers the hitman has posted since moving to Ibrox will make it hard for the club to hold on to him this summer.
The Colombian hit the 30-goal mark last season and the InStat programme, used by many clubs for scouting and analysis, is predicting an identical campaign if Morelos stays at Ibrox. That will put him on the radar of bosses desperate for a prolific marksman.
Morelos first caught the eye of Johansson when playing for HJK Helsinki in Finland.
The stats forced the former Gers ace to dig a bit deeper to find out if he would be a good fit for Rangers in his time as Pedro Caixinha’s No.2.
The former Ibrox coach said: “I knew Alfredo from when I was assistant manager of the Finnish national team and I watched his HJK Helsinki team a lot.
“He caught my eye but I spoke to some of his teammates, his manager and coaches to get an insight into him. I did a thorough background check before recommending him to Pedro.
“A lot of the time it comes through these types of scouting programmes at first.
“I made some clips of Alfredo to show Pedro and why I thought he would do well in Scotland.
“These types of programmes are a big help for that. Viewing people live and getting inside information are also very important.
“Character is a big thing and that is something you don’t necessarily get that in these types of statistic-based programmes.”
Morelos has been the subject of transfer speculation since football went into lockdown but netted in Rangers’ friendly win over Hamilton last week.
Steven Gerrard will need a deadly striker as Rangers chase the title but Johansson admits plenty of clubs will be keen to prise him away.
He said: “Good teams need strikers who can score a lot of goals, that can be the big difference if you want to be successful.
“Alfredo holds the ball up, is quick and is strong, so you bring the assets all together and it would make him very valuable to most
teams. Top teams are always interested in good players and particularly goalscorers.
“Every top club will be using some form of scout and video programmes. The teams and data analysts will be comparing him to other players and they will be looking at the statistics to see if he could do it in a so-called bigger league as well.
“A lot of teams will be doing their homework and there will be a lot of scouts at Ibrox as soon as they are allowed back in.”
If Morelos moves then Gers will have to find a replacement as they bid to stop Celtic claiming a 10th successive top-flight title.
They have been linked with the likes of Lyndon Dykes, Ivan Toney, Lawrence Shankland and Lyle Taylor so far this summer.
Only Peterborough striker Toney comes close in predicted goals for next term, with InStat backing him to net 23 times. None of the other reported targets are predicted to break the 20goal barrier but Johansson still believes Gers won’t need to break the bank to land another deadly forward.
Morelos only cost £1million and the Finn says there are bargains out there.
He said: “Rangers will know Alfredo will guarantee them goals but like every player he will have his price.
“It is expensive to get players but Alfredo only cost £1m so he wasn’t that expensive.
“It shows there can be good value in the market if you find the right player, although you need a lot of things to fall into place.
“It takes good coaching to take them on to the next level.
“But these programmes can be a good help because scouts can’t get out and about at the moment to look at players because of the pandemic.”
Teams and their data analysts will be looking at all of the statistics
JONATAN JOHANSSON ON MORELOS PURSUIT