Nats are ahead of the pack
IN NORMAL political times, Nicola Sturgeon would be approaching her party’s virtual conference with a sense of dread.
Before the pandemic struck, the SNP had already been in power for over a decade and signs of fatigue were showing.
Sturgeon said five years ago she wanted to “completely” close the educational attainment gap but this divide is still huge.
In 2018, the Government gave itself three years to hit NHS waiting times targets.
Two massive infrastructure projects – the super-hospital in Glasgow and the new Sick Kids’ facility in Edinburgh – were marred by scandal and delay.
Sturgeon also has a number of internal difficulties.
A band of activists are impatient about her strategy on IndyRef2 and the Salmond Inquiry remains a threat.
Her government’s approach to aspects of the pandemic may also provide political opponents with ammunition.
Any public inquiry is likely to criticise policies on care homes, while the handling of the return of schools and universities can best be described as botched. However, as she prepares to make her conference speech, the political landscape for Sturgeon is remarkably positive.
Her party is polling at over 50 per cent which, if borne out at next year’s Holyrood election, will likely see the SNP win a majority without needing the support of the Greens. On these numbers, she could even exceed the majority achieved by Salmond in 2011.
Explaining this paradox – domestic under-achievement and positive polling – is not difficult. Success at politics does not require excellence, it’s where you are judged against the competition.
And Sturgeon and the SNP are perceived by voters to be in a different league.