Axe bid is Tory election gambit
THE Tory ultimatum for Nicola Sturgeon to quit or face a motion of no confidence (MONC) over the Alex Salmond saga is directly tied to the Holyrood election.
At least one of the inquiries from the mess caused by the Government’s botched sexual misconduct probe into Salmond will be critical of the First Minister.
This probe, undertaken by a Holyrood Committee, has concluded that Sturgeon misled parliament over whether she offered to assist her estranged mentor.
A second investigation, headed by Irish lawyer James Hamilton, will judge whether she breached an ethics code over the debacle. Both reports should be published by Tuesday.
However, supporters of a MONC privately concede Sturgeon is likely to hold on, even if she is criticised by the Committee and Hamilton.
For a vote of censure to pass, the pro-independence Greens would need to back the Tory plan, but party co-convener Patrick Harvie has signalled his support for Sturgeon.
Recent opinion polls show the SNP and Greens are on course to win a comfortable majority of seats in May. Harvie has also said he is open to the possibility of a coalition with Sturgeon’s party.
Bringing down the First Minister would cause turmoil within the independence movement and end the prospects of the Greens ever joining the SNP in government.
The Tories have their own partisan electoral reasons for keeping the heat on the First Minister.
Although polling shows the SNP in line to win an outright majority – without the support of the Greens – the margins are tight.
By plugging away at so-called SNP “sleaze”, a narrative that includes Sturgeon and disgraced Derek Mackay, the Conservatives feel the Salmond/Sturgeon breakdown could cost the SNP seats.
This is not a strategy that will win the Tories any new voters. No left-of-centre Unionists or soft Yessers will switch to the Conservatives on account of their attacks on Sturgeon.
The motivation is to sow division inside the independence camp and hope bewildered SNP backers stay at home.
If the Nationalists fall short of an overall majority, Boris Johnson will use this “victory” as a reason to refuse IndyRef 2.
While Holyrood remains open for business and the two reports linger unpublished, Sturgeon will feel immense pressure.
Her opponents will use parliamentary time early next week to blacken her name and dominate the headlines.
If she survives until Wednesday evening, when Holyrood heads into recess, she will lead her party into the election.
Tories feel SalmondSturgeon breakdown could cost SNP seats PAUL HUTCHEON POLITICAL EDITOR