Why is Russia’s mighty military failing?

Why has the invasion faltered?

It was over-ambitious and launched using a badly-funded, ill-disciplined and poorly-trained military against a courageous, highly-motivated defending force.

Putin’s commanders launched attacks on several fronts. The Russians seem not to be invested in the fight and suffer from poor morale.

Many Russians entered the battle unaware of where they were, their commanders arrogantly hoping they would take Kyiv within days after pouring down from Belarus.

It requires a roughly four to one advantage in numbers to take a city and Putin’s plan to overrun well-defended Kyiv and other cities was based on shockingly poor intelligence of Ukrainian resolve and capability.

Why have Russian troops performed so badly?

They have been neglected over the years, poorly trained, ill-fed and went into battle with insufficient supplies, which even included rations that were five years out of date. Some had so little fuel they broke down.

Top-down corruption has led to funding being diverted into the wrong hands, leading to a cynical and under-performing force.

Discipline is a huge issue and senior officers have been sent to the frontline to try to control troops, before getting killed. The backbone of any Army is its non-commissioned officers and

Russia’s are badly trained. Many recruits are conscripts.

What’s happening on the ground?

Russian troops fled the outskirts of Kyiv weeks ago to concentrate on the mission in the east, where the two sides have been fighting since 2014.

They tried repeatedly to take the north-eastern city of Kharkiv and reports indicate they have lost this crucial area. Despite grandiose Russian claims of a huge victory in the key city of Mariupol, Ukraine’s troops – though many of them are injured and starving – are still holding out in the steel works and their struggle is now a symbol of defiance and bravery.

Russia is failing to keep hold of ground it had once dominated. The recently launched Ukrainian counter-offensive appears to be gaining momentum.

What will happen next?

In the short-term it appears Russia will continue to take heavy losses, while claiming the lives of Ukrainian civilians with brutal bombardments.

Ukrainian troops are rallying but this next stage is crucial. Until now they have been flanking Russian forces, ambushing them and cutting off supply lines. From 2014, Ukraine and pro-Russian forces fought running battles in an everchanging theatre of war – but then moved into holding longterm positions. It is possible this will settle into that kind of war.

Could the war end suddenly?

This is unlikely as Putin has backed himself into a corner and has to save face. Ukraine has shown no sign that it is ready to reach an agreement acceptable to Putin. The fear is the Russian leader may be tempted to use a large weapon such as a tactical nuclear bomb to destroy a city to get leverage. This is where the west’s resolve would be tested but it is extremely unlikely to happen.