Everything you know need to about IndyRef2

Q&A

What was new in Nicola Sturgeon’s statement?

Quite a lot. She wants to stage a referendum on October 19, 2023, insisted it must but be “legal”.

Is there are problem that? with

The Scottish Parliament doesn’t have the powers to stage a constitutional referendum – that is reserved to Westminster government and the UK would go to court block a Holyrood to referendum bill.

Why not just go ahead and have a referendum anyway?

It wouldn’t be legal and it wouldn’t be seen as legitimate, either internationally or by many Scottish voters, and there are several legal obstacles to stopping a so-called “wildcat” referendum.

What are they?

Scotland’s chief legal officer, the Lord Advocate, could rule it illegal, the Holyrood Presiding Officer could rule the bill not competent, the opposition could boycott it and the UK government, interested or another body, could strike in the Supreme it down Court before anyone decides Yes or No.

Back to square one, then?

Not quite, Sturgeon a has come up with Plan B shortcut to get around legal challenges by instructing Advocate the Lord to go directly to Supreme the Court for a ruling the legality on of a consultative referendum. With that clarity a vote could be staged next year, said the First Minister.

Or refused?

Most legal experts, and many SNP insiders, think the Supreme Court will give a very narrow interpretation of the Scotland Act and rule that Holyrood does not have the power to hold a referendum. Also, the court is being asked to rule on a hypothetical as the bill will not go to Parliament (where it could be amended) until there is a Supreme Court ruling. The court could simply say: “Come back later.”

Game over, then?

Far from it. To borrow a phrase, the dream will never die and the SNP moves to Plan C. Sturgeon said that the Supreme Court if favours Westminster’s legal supremacy, “that will be Westminster’s fault,” and the SNP will fight the next general election on one issue – should Scotland be an independent country?

Would that be like a referendum?

No, but it would be a huge debate on national democracy and independence, which is ground the SNP is comfortable fighting on. The Plan B and Plan C for indy also very good are for firing up the SNP support base, some of whom are expressing impatience with Sturgeon and would be a major distraction from the track record of the Scottish Government.

Would the general election result be binding?

The election is UK-wide and about forming a UK-wide government. The SNP is able to dominate the Scottish agenda in elections a but turning it into single-issue campaign challenge would be a for the most effective campaigner. Other parties will referendum not see it as a and neither will voters. many

But if the SNP wins a majority in the election? general

That seems quite likely right now. The SNP won the most seats in Scotland in the 2019 election, 48 out of 59 constituencies. It received the most votes too but that was 45 per cent, the same percentage as voted for Scotland to be independent in 2014. If these figures don’t change between now and then, all a general election would prove is that Scotland remains divided on independence.