ROLL ON SUMMER
Boy can show he’s Supreme
THE anticipation has been building for the four fabulous days at Cheltenham starting a week on Tuesday.
The atmosphere reaches a crescendo as the runners line up at the start for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
The famous Cheltenham roar greets the flag fall, and in that glorious moment all hopes and dreams remain intact.
The adrenaline is furiously pumping through both man and beast, having a significant impact on the result of the race. They go a frenetic gallop, so you need a horse that has a high cruising speed and a sound jumping technique.
Willie Mullins has been responsible for four of the last five favourites in the Supreme, with three wins and two second places in the last five renewals.
So it’s no wonder, then, that his Getabird is favourite for this year’s race. At present this looks like the weakest Supreme for a number of years, however I don’t think Getabird deserves to be as short as 6-4.
I suggest taking him on for several reasons, notably his temperament.
He hasn’t shown any issues since joining Mullins but this will be the first time he has gone left-handed since running out in a point-to-point at Liscarroll, when with Colin Bowe.
The form of his maiden hurdle win is working out well, but he very much got the run of the race when stepped up in grade for the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle. He readily swept aside Mengli Khan, although he was in receipt of 6lb and that rival was returning to the track just 17 days after a horror fall at Leopardstown.
The other question mark I have with him is his tendency to spend longer in the air at an obstacle than he should. Now it may sound like I am being ultra critical here but this is a 6-4 favourite for the Supreme – and you have to be critical at those odds.
To put that price into perspective, Vautour was sent off a 7-2 favourite and Douvan a 2-1 favourite.
Is Geta bird that much better than either of those two superstars?
The problem is who do we take him on with? Kalashnikov is a horse I love and not just because I backed him at 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle – although that helps. Impressive on his first two hurdle starts, he was disappointing at Sandown.
However, he bounced right back to form at Newbury, winning comfortably although like at Sandown, he never travelled through the race. His jumping is his best asset and the fact he is battlehardened in a big field will be a huge advantage against less experienced rivals.
Kalashnikov probably brings the best form to the table but he is priced accordingly. He is a rock-solid 6-1 second favourite, but I just don’t see any value at that price.
SUMMERVILLE BOY accounted for Kalashnikov in the Tolworth Hurdle but is 14-1, more than twice his odds. Tom George’s runner gets
better by the race and had a decent pace in front of him at Sandown.
Still on the bridle turning for home, he quickened up impressively to lead but made a terrible mistake at the final flight. That didn’t seem to check his momentum though and he powered on up the hill, winning by a comfortable four lengths.
He will have learned an awful lot and a reproduction of that run will place him right there at the finish.
He handles the course and I see him being single figures on the day. Claimant akin f organ was my early-season fancy for this but since my enthusiasm has waned.
Third in last season’s Champion Bumper, he made an impressive start over hurdles at Newbury, beating a nice horse of Colin Tizzard’s.
He then went to Ascot and made heavy weather of putting a Grade Two to bed – form that has been let down subsequently. A proven Festival performer, he may improve for spring ground but it would take a leap of faith to back him now. Paloma Blue ran well in a Grade One at Leopardstown last month. Very keen early on, he travelled well into the straight but was ultimately put in his place by Samcro. He looked like he had a hard race. If that is the case it could easily have left its mark.
Rob’s recommended bet: Summerville Boy (e-w) at 14-1.
ROB CHADWICK regularly updates his racing blog at huntinggravysince2000.wordpress.com.