OOH , D’AIR WINS
THE more time I spend working on the Champion Hurdle, the more it strikes me just how substandard this season’s renewal is.
Many of the 13 that line up tomorrow come here with serious questions to answer. I am not sure that they will be able to come up with the answers.
The reigning Champion Hurdler BUVEUR D’AIR (3.30) is unbeaten in his last nine starts and looks an infallible favourite.
Already a dual Grade One winner this season, he certainly didn’t have to be at his best when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle.
There is no doubt that the form of that race is pretty awful, but he could not have won any easier.
Not everybody will agree, but to my eyes he has improved this season.
His hurdling looks slicker, and he is versatile with regards to the ground. He will be very tough to beat.
Faugheen has been nothing short of perplexing. He burst back on to the scene in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, winning impressively.
However, in the cold light of day maybe we got a bit carried away with how highly we rated that form.
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Last time out at Leopardstown he set out to make all. Faugheen in his prime would have found an extra gear when challenged and then kicked clear, but he failed to quicken and was ultimately beaten comfortably by Supasundae.
He may well come on for that run, but unless he finds at least 10lb he will not win another Champion Hurdle.
The third favourite, Yorkhill, simply doesn’t have the basic speed needed to win a Champion Hurdle.
He certainly doesn’t jump like a Champion Hurdler, and it would take a leap of faith to back him.
Elgin disappointed in last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, but he was still relatively weak and immature at that stage.
This season he enters the coliseum that is Cheltenham, a battle hardened warrior with course and distance form to his name.
He has a high cruising speed, jumps well and is versatile with regards to the ground. He may not be good enough to beat Buveur d’Air but I am happy to take the 4-1 about Elgin being placed. 3.30 SELECTION BUVEUR D’AIR – 1-2 WIN ELGIN – 16-1 e.w. THE Racing Post Arkle has very much been a benefit race for favourites in recent years, with five of the last six winning at odds-on.
Only one winner has returned at a double-figure price this century, further pointing towards the head of the market.
Hurdles form has been an excellent recent guide, with three of the last five winners being top rated over the smaller obstacles. Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir both reached a mark of 162 over hurdles.
Footpad arrives here as the short priced favourite, having carried all before him this season. Already a dual Grade One winner over fences, he looks to have improved for the larger obstacles.
He won a weak race by 11 lengths on his chasing debut, then readily brushed Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty aside in a Grade One.
Next time out, Footpad met his old rival Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown. Making all, he won comfortably.
Footpad attacks his obstacles with real vigour and has looked to be all about pace this season. However, I would be concerned by him being tried over intermediate trips last season. In his two runs at Cheltenham he has looked one paced, running on when the race is effectively over.
That would have to be a concern given the likely fast pace tomorrow. If you get too far behind in an Arkle, you will find it extremely difficult to get back into the race.
PETIT MOUCHOIR was better than Footpad over hurdles, albeit there was little betweeen them.
Footpad gained his revenge over fences last time, when the selection made two significant blunders early on. As Petit Mouchoir was returning to the track after a long spell off improvement should be forthcoming.
Providing he stands up, he will be very difficult to beat and I fully expect him to be challenging at the line. In my opinion any price over 2-1 looks reasonable value.
Saint Calvados has been very much the talking horse of this race in recent weeks and rightly so, he has been immensely impressive in all three starts since joining Harry Whittington.
His chasing debut set tongues wagging. He treated a fair yard stick in Remiluc with utter contempt, giving him 11lb and a nine-length beating despite looking green in front. That was while he was still a four year old.
Just as impressive on his second start, he dispatched his rivals with relative ease despite having to shoulder a penalty.
In the lead up to the Festival, plenty of people will hit you with the statistic that five-year-olds don’t win Arkles.
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That has certainly been the case in recent years, however since their weight allowance was removed; only four have tried in the last nine renewals. So that stat is somewhat misleading, although there will always be an exception to the rule.
I find it astonishing that the Nicky Henderson trained Brain Power is as short as 10-1, he may well be the joint top rated hurdler but this is a classic example of big stable bias. If he hailed from a smaller yard he’d be 20-1.
He has had a far from ideal preparation for this, failing to complete on the last two occasions.
I couldn’t have him on my mind for this, he has been well beaten in two races at Cheltenham when well fancied. Nicky Henderson clearly still retains the faith, but if you are backing him at those prices you need to take a long hard look at yourself. 2.10 SELECTION PETIT MOUCHOIR – 9-4 ALTHOUGH this is only the eleventh renewal of the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle, some pretty strong trends are already starting to emerge.
Despite the large field the favourite has obliged on seven occasions, and had Annie Power not fallen at the last in 2015 that would have been eight. That’s a pretty high strike rate considering the race averages 17 runners.
The stats highlight the lack of depth in this division, as a good three quarters of the field do not possess the ability to win. Looking back through the previous winners of this race, all had previously been competitive in graded races against the geldings prior to their Cheltenham triumphs.
Another major clue towards finding the winner of this race has been confirmed stamina.
All bar the inaugural winner (Whiteoak) had been successful over at least 2m 4f. Although, the exceptional Quevega’s six victories somewhat distort those stats.
One of the festivals more predictable races, it clearly pays not to look too far beyond the obvious. APPLE’S JADE is a rock solid favourite at 8-13, although a case can be made that she should be a fair bit shorter.
She is the only genuine Grade One performer in this field, she is the defending champion and will handle the almost certain testing conditions. She jumps well, comes here fresh and will prove very hard to beat.
La Bague Au Roi has improved with every run. You can question the depth of the Grade Two Mares’ Hurdle she won at Ascot but she had a penalty to carry and could not have won more easily. The form has since been franked, with the second being placed next time out and the fourth subsequently winning a Grade Two.
She has a tremendous record against her own sex, with 10 wins and only two defeats to her name. Her performance here last season is easily forgiven, she had a penalty to carry that day and was ridden far too aggressively from the front.
Since then she has matured, filling her fairly frame. The step up in trip has brought about significant improvement and the testing conditions should prove no barrier to success. She looks overpriced at 6-1, in a race that could be dominated by the favourite.
Benie Des Dieux is something of a dark horse, coming here on the back of two impressive displays over fences. She jumps so well that it has to be a negative for her to revert to the smaller obstacles.
Benie Des Dieux warrants respect, although we do not have enough evidence to suggest she has the ability to beat Apple’s Jade. We do know she handles testing conditions and has the stamina for this trip. Her price of 4-1 looks fair without being generous. 4.10 SELECTION APPLE’S JADE – 4-7 + LA BAGUE AU ROI – 6-1 e.w.