LUCK OF THE DERBY DRAW
NO horse has won the Investec Derby this century from stall one. In fact, only three have ever done so since stalls were introduced in
1967.
And yet today’s odds-on favourite, Saxon Warrior, will be attempting to emulate Blakeney
(1969), Roberto (1972) and Oath
(1999) by winning the world’s most famous Flat race from that starting position.
At least he isn’t in the stall next door. No horse has ever won the race from stall two.
So what is it about that inside draw that is so unfavourable?
The Derby course is very undulating. As soon as the stalls open the field have to gallop uphill for the first half a mile and have to negotiate a right-hand turn as they do so.
That is where a horse with an inside draw can get into difficulty if he is slowly away. As the ground levels off the field then turns to the left before heading downhill towards Tattenham Corner.
Balanced
If a horse is hemmed in on the rail and further back than his jockey might have preferred it will have more ground to make up as the field enters the straight.
The leading runners will be kicking for home by then and a horse needs to be balanced along the three-furlong straight with the winning post in sight.
Front-runners often do well when the ground is soft as the stand-side rail is a major advantage, especially if leading round Tattenham Corner.
A horse is then required to handle the camber across the course, which leans in towards the rail, after which a furlong out the ground rises again towards the finish.
It is a course that suits some horses more than others, but a settled horse in a handy position has a better chance than one forced to make up ground from the rear.
But there are two things in Saxon Warrior’s favour. He only has 11 rivals to beat and he also has one of the greatest Derby-winning jockeys on his back, Ryan Moore.