WINNER TAKES OL FOR VILLANS
Watkins to sink Europa rivals Spurs
THE race for European football between clubs outside the Premier League’s top four teams is turning into a fascinating battle.
Liverpool are still harbouring hopes of snatching a Champions League place but the three clubs below them – Tottenham, Brighton and Aston Villa – are in a three-way battle for Europa League and Europa Conference League places.
One game that could make a huge difference takes place today when Spurs travel to Villa Park hoping to put real daylight between themselves and their hosts.
But a two-goal victory for Unai Emery’s home side would leave the sides level on points AND goal difference, with two games to play.
Brighton have two games in hand over their rivals, lying two points behind Spurs and two ahead of Villa.
But their last five games involve trips to Arsenal tomorrow, Newcastle in midweek and Villa on the final day, plus home matches against Southampton and Manchester City.
After their 5-1 home humbling by struggling Everton in midweek, I reckon there’s every chance they may only pick up points against Saints, which would see them finish the season on 58 points.
I believe Villa can take advantage of Spurs’ poor away form today and can also beat the Seagulls on May 28 to finish on 60 points.
Tottenham appear to have the easiest run-in after today, with a home clash against Brentford before visiting Leeds. But if Leeds need a win to stay up on that final day, then there are no guarantees.
They could also finish on 60 points, so goal difference could well be key if they hope to finish sixth in the table. Villa are now a massive 16-1 with Sky Bet to make the top six – but those odds will tumble if they beat Tottenham. Brighton are 8-15 and Spurs 5-4, and neither is nailed on.
Emery’s side must take three points today, and their 10-match unbeaten run – before two 1-0 defeats at Wolves and Manchester United – suggests that they can collect. They can boast five consecutive home wins to nil, scoring ten goals in the process.
Spurs stopped the rot when beating Crystal Palace at home last week but they’ve drawn two and lost four of their last six on the road.
They also have a decent record at Villa Park and are unbeaten there since 2008, but for me the form points to a home win at 13-10 with Coral and Sky Bet. Spurs are available at 21-10 with William Hill and the draw is 27-10 with Unibet.
Villa striker Ollie Watkins has gone four without scoring after a hot streak, so he could well be due a goal. He’s around 11-8 to score at any time but I’d take the 9-2 that he opens the scoring. You can also have 3-1 that the England striker scores and Villa win.
Spurs have conceded inside the first 15 minutes of PL games this term more than any other side, so it may well be worth taking Sky Bet’s 4-1 that the first goal comes between the 10th and 20th minute.
With players like Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son in their side, Spurs will always carry a threat so I can see both sides scoring.
I’d back the 2-1 victory for Villa at 9-1 with bet365 but also try Watkins to net first with that scoreline, for a scorecast that pays a big 25-1. Watkins and Son to both score will also pay 9-1 with Sky Bet.