Market watch
Colin Hay, a professor of political economy with a special interest in the Place de Bordeaux, offers advice on how to approach en primeur purchasing
A RELIABLE MECHANISM for identifying what to buy during Bordeaux en primeur does not exist. But there are a number of things one can say about wines that have proven to be good en primeur investments.
Five factors stand out from the academic analysis that I and others have conducted:
First, they need to be well-backed by the critics – and, ideally (and increasingly) by a range of critics. Second, they will ultimately need to be backed again by the critics once re-tasted in bottle. One-off high-scoring wines en primeur tend to peak in price just before they are re-tasted.
Third, wines from up-and-coming estates are more likely to be under-priced relative to their value and represent a better investment. Look out for properties on an upward curve in terms of the critical evaluations they have received in recent vintages but whose release prices still have yet to catch up with their newfound status.
Fourth, the case for purchase is stronger if there is a compelling story to tell about the quality trajectory of the property – for example, where a property has changed hands, winemaker, consultant oenologist or, more simply, style, to critical acclaim. Fifth, scarce wines for which one needs an allocation are more likely to be sure-fire investments.
These five points hopefully provide useful guidance in how to think about en primeur from the consumer’s perspective. But the brutal reality is that most of us will not make money – or certainly not very much – from our en primeur purchases.
That is not an argument for wine lovers to forgo en primeur, but it is certainly a reason for going into it with eyes open.
Colin Hay is professor of political economy at Sciences Po in Paris. Read a longer version of this article on Decanter.com.
■ Visit Decanter.com/Premium to read Jane Anson’s exclusive reviews for more than 600 Bordeaux 2017 barrel samples, a selection of which will be published in next month’s magazine. Meanwhile, see p62 for a review of her top 2015s retasted in bottle