Derby is not an island... many people could be carrying the virus
PEOPLE living in Derby and looking across the border into Nottinghamshire might feel cocooned from the soaring number of coronavirus cases that have been reported there.
But there is no room for complacency because Nottingham’s problem today could easily be Derby’s tomorrow if people don’t take responsibility for their actions, according to leading health experts.
As of Wednesday, Public Health England reported that Nottingham had 497 cases per 100,000 people – putting it in fourth position for the worst affected areas in the country.
In the latest rolling seven-day data for every local authority in England, there were 1,654 new cases in the city during the seven days to October 4, bringing with them implications for possible local lockdown.
The mixing of various households has been identified by the city’s director of public health, Alison Challenger, as the main cause of Nottingham’s coronavirus surge.
She said: “Three quarters [of cases] are linked to household gatherings. That’s where people are most at risk of picking up the virus, in a house or events where people are not social distancing.”
By contrast, Derby’s Public Health England figures show that as of October 7, the city had 75 cases per 100,000 people, with 194 new cases in the city during the seven days to October 4 – very much lower than Nottingham’s figure.
But with the number of cases increasing quite rapidly on the Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire border in Erewash, where the rate is 94 cases per 100,000 people – up by 109 new cases in the seven days to October 4 – the virus appears to be on the march westward.
Derby’s director of public health, Dr Robyn Dewis, said that there will be only so much that can be done to stop the virus flowing from one area to the other with people working in and travelling between both cities.
She said: “There is an element of chance. There could be someone with a particularly busy social life who has the virus and unknowingly seeds it around many places and it can be that easy.
“I think people should be cautious about blaming students at colleges and universities because they are more likely to be tested but they do represent a big group of people who have moved into an area.
“But really, it is down to the individual to make choices. Health can be an individual problem but infectious disease is very much everyone in a community’s problem.
“We cannot afford to be complacent about an infectious disease that is very virulent, which it is showing signs of being currently.
“It is inevitable that we will see a rise in the number of cases everywhere until we see a change in the measures at Government level.”
Dr Dewis says that Derby is potentially later into the second wave than Nottingham but with 203 new cases to date, the rate per 100,000 has more than doubled.
She said: “We are seeing more hospital admissions and more cases in young people. Cases will increase and it will happen rapidly and winter is not on our side. People will be staying indoors more and trying to stay two metres apart is very difficult at home.
“We do have the advantage from the first wave in that now we are using face coverings, protecting people in care homes and so we are in a better place. But Derby and Derbyshire is not an island and people need to bear that in mind when they are going about their daily lives.
“Many people could be carrying the virus without showing symptoms and this could well affect the speed at which it will spread.”
“They should stick to the guidelines and remember to wash hands, cover their faces and social distance.
“We have been issuing guidance
but it is important to emphasise the social responsibility that we all have.”
Nottingham is in fourth place behind Knowsley, Liverpool and Manchester, which all have rates above 540. The figures are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government’s testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).
Director of Public Health for Nottinghamshire, Jonathan Gribbin, said: “Covid-19 does not recognise geographical boundaries so we must stand together with our local authority partners to do all we can to fight this virus across all our communities.
“The rapid and sustained increase in the numbers of positive cases is a serious cause for concern and the very dramatic rates in the city are a clear sign that action is needed now across the whole of Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. We must now ask every resident to do their bit and not mix indoors with people from other households.”
Health can be an individual problem but infectious disease is very much everyone in a community’s problem.
Dr Robyn Dewis