Derby will need tougher restrictions as winter approaches, says health chief
DERBY will need more Covid-19 restrictions heading into winter, says the city’s public health chief.
This comes as the rate of virus infections in the city increases to more than 100 cases per 100,000 people (109) - with the total number of cases in the city in the week up to October 10 standing at 281.
Dr Robyn Dewis, Derby City Council’s public health director, did not elaborate as to what restrictions would be required. However, at the least it would likely see the city brought into line with neighbouring Nottinghamshire in tier 2 - with a ban on different households meeting indoors, including in pubs.
Dr Dewis told Derby City Council adult health scrutiny committee that, to date, 324 people in Derby have died after contracting Covid19.
She said: “I think the Prime Minister’s announcement indicated a change in the approach in instigating tiers of intervention.
“But I imagine that greater measures will be needed because we have got greater challenges this time.
“We know last time that we had the ‘stay at home’ message which was really effective, but we also had that we were moving into spring and the impact that spring then has on the spread of respiratory viruses.
“This time the measures are being taken as we move towards winter which just adds that extra difficulty and if we did exactly the same thing as we did last time we would have a worse outcome just purely because it is about winter, rather than the spring.
“There is a huge degree of uncertainty. We are seeing an increase in cases across the city and we are anticipating that that will continue.
“There are a number of drivers for the increase for the virus including the increase in mixing including the return of schools, but along with that there is the seasonality of winter when respiratory viruses are always more able to spread.
“The positive impact of being outside is not available to us over the winter months. There will also be other respiratory viruses circling and also the cold weather. People with existing conditions will be perhaps more vulnerable over the winter period.
“We are expecting to see the rate to increase more slowly than last time, partly due to all of the measures we have in place to help reduce the spread of the virus, but it is really challenging to know when that peak will come and how large it will be.
“It is interdependent on what happens around us and what government brings into place.
“There are various modelling tools to estimate the R rate and they show that we will peak either towards the end of November or towards January, depending on which tool you use and which measures are in place.”
Derby is currently in tier 1 restrictions with a “medium” risk, alongside the majority of England.
There is a rule of six around gatherings in place – and pubs and restaurants must now close at 10pm. Social distancing, wearing face coverings and regular hand sanitising remain the key general public health recommendations.