Progress but still problems for Albion to solve
IN THE predictable social media fallout from the third successive game in which Burton Albion have surrendered a lead, someone pointed out that six points from the last four games was decent – and that if the Brewers continued in that vein, they would be fine.
It’s a nice thought and, of course, Albion were also unbeaten in those four games. The stat stands up – just about.
Six points from every four games from now on would give Burton 56 points.
That would have been good enough for the heady heights of 13th in 2018-19, the last time a League One season was played to its natural conclusion.
It would have seen them anywhere from 15th to 17th in each of the five seasons before that.
It isn’t unreasonable to expect the Brewers to take six points from four games on average but they would want to get those points by winning a few more games.
If they were to draw a fourth game in a row 1-1 tonight against Ipswich Town, it would be a quite freakish statistic.
If it were to happen again after taking a 1-0 lead well into the second, it would not just be freakish but massively wasteful.
Manager Jake Buxton is keen to emphasise the positives and he is not wrong to say there are plenty as Albion begin to repair the damage of their poor start but he must have headed back up the motorway from Milton Keynes on Saturday thinking “not again.”
Solidly as they have defended in general, they keep finding different ways to concede that late equaliser – a penalty clumsily and a little unfortunately conceded by Ciaran Gilligan on Saturday, a spectacular goal by Crewe Alexandra’s Owen Dale the week before and a very good header by Sunderland’s Max Power from a good cross before that.
In and around the goals conceded has been some terrific defending, with Kieran O’Hara looking sound and confident in goal, Sam Hughes, Michael Bostwick and John Brayford winning headers and making heroic blocks.
However, there are, as I see it, two big problems not entirely connected to the back five that are holding Burton back.
One is the taking of chances at the other end and the other is the recurring habit they have of being forced back by the opposition from the start of the second half.
It is no coincidence that they have led 1-0 in each of the last four games but the one they won came after they had also got a second goal, against Charlton Athletic.
Ignore the fact that the Charlton game, which finished 4-2, was freakish – it could have been 7-7, as Addicks manager Lee Bowyer pointed out – the key was that Burton were that much more relaxed and confident for going two goals to the good after scoring the first.
The taking of chances – or the failure to – was more evident against Milton Keynes than in the other two draws.
Lucas Akins had a close-range chance deflected wide and another saved, keeper Andrew Fisher redeeming himself after dropping the ball at the striker’s feet, while Ryan Edwards had four clear chances and will have nightmares about the free header he planted wide in the first half from Colin Daniel’s marvellous cross. That one, especially, was where the second goal went missing.
Although it was the second half before Burton took the lead against both Sunderland and Crewe, they did so against the run of play against both.
There seems to be a mental block about their second half approach.
Naturally, after being outplayed in the first half, all three opponents in the last three games will have had forthright words in the dressing room and come out with more urgency.
That is to be expected.
But the contrast was even more marked against Milton Keynes.
The Dons are an expensivelyassembled side with big ideas but they were comprehensively outplayed in the first half.
Scott Fraser has been their star man but the former Brewer, with Ciaran Gilligan snapping at his heels, scarcely had a kick.
You have to wonder why, for all that the Dons could not be as bad in the second half, Burton could not
have carried on where they left off, at least to an extent.
They still had chances but they were all condensed into a short spell after the equaliser.
For most of the half, the Brewers were pegged back, losing the ball when they did get the chance to counter and being forced to defend desperately.
The equalisers from Sunderland, Crewe and Milton Keynes all looked inevitable and that is something that has to change.