SHRINKING FAMILIES

Average family size falls to its smallest since 1800

THE number of children per family has halved over the last 50 years but women in some countries are still having far more children than the global average. For much of human history, despite fluctuating numbers and some differences between countries, the average woman had at least five children, and in many countries, more.

However, since 1965, that changed to a falling trend, and globally the average number of children per woman was below 2.5 in 2020 - the lowest since data started to be collected in 1800 by the United Nations.

The decline is driven by more women in education and work, better access to contraception and, in general, better conditions for women, according to the scientific online publication Our World in Data.

The metric used is called Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman bears over her lifetime.

Despite the sharp decline, some countries still have a TFR far above the average.

Those countries are mainly in Africa, with Niger recording the highest rate, at 6.7 children for each mother, followed by Somalia (5.9 children), the Democratic Republic of Congo (5.7), Mali (5.7), and Chad (5.9) closing the top five in 2020.

The countries with a higher TFR are also those that have seen a decrease slower than the average since 1950.

In Niger, for instance, between 1950 and 2020, the TFR has decreased by only 7% against a global average of 52%. In Somalia, it was down by 19%, in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 5%, in Mali by 18%, and in Chad by 8%.

Despite the high rates, however, falling TFRs mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

According to research published in the scientific paper The Lancet, by 2050, 151 countries are forecasted to have a TFR lower than 2.1 children per woman.

That is considered to be the replacement level - the level of fertility at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.

That means if the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population will start to fall.

Looking at our country, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that England and

Wales are already under the replacement level with a TFR of 1.7 children per woman.

According to the projections in the scientific paper, at the current pace, we’ll globally reach the threshold of 2.1 children per woman by 2034, and by the end of the century, the rate will go down even more, to 1.7 children per mother.